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097543a5f9
The W = 12 pairing is now measured the way a ~0.001 claim has to be: every
integer W from 8 to 15, 32 replicates, and paired_streams so the whole grid runs
on common random numbers (_base_key excludes both uncle_window_anchor and
window_absorption, so a replicate draws one stake vector, one graph and one
lottery for every cell). The earlier unpaired sweep reported +0.0008 against a
standard error of 0.0009 — it could not resolve its own headline.
Paired against today's recipe (uncle-anchored, W = 10):
parent W=10 -0.0056 +- 0.0005 t = -10.4
parent W=11 -0.0024 +- 0.0005 t = -4.5
parent W=12 +0.00004 +- 0.00050 t = 0.1 <- parity
parent W=14 +0.0016 +- 0.0004 t = 3.5
W = 12 is the smallest window reaching parity, and the parity is exact rather
than marginal: W = 11, one interval short, is still resolvably worse. p_ref
agrees at the same window (0.938 vs 0.939) instead of lagging to W = 15 as the
unpaired edition had it. Also states what the sweep makes visible: widening
today's uncle-anchored rule buys +0.0018 on its own, so W = 12 makes the swap
cost-neutral against the CURRENT recipe rather than optimal in absolute terms.
CORRECTIONS to the previous commit, which measured contamination on the wrong
RNG stream. The engine draws stake from seedseq_for(config).spawn(...)[0]; I
used rng_for(config), the root. Both are valid stake draws, neither is the same
vector. Redone properly:
- The capstone draw was NOT contaminated: 0 of 8 replicates over 1.25x its
label, worst 0.369 against 0.30, no majority. My "2 of 8, one a 61%
majority" was wrong and is withdrawn from §8.4 and §9.
- The finding that survives is sharper: on that same mild overshoot the spec's
rule moved 0.001 and the parent-anchored variant moved 0.016. A rule leaning
harder on the reference window is far more sensitive to an oversized
suppressing coalition.
- Genuinely contaminated: §6.12's 12-replicate W sweep (2 majorities, worst
0.720) and §6.8's selfish margin at a=0.3 and a=0.4 (2 and 1 majorities).
§6.5's variants and §6.8's a=0.2 arm are clean; §8.3 item 20 narrowed to the
one sweep that still needs re-running.
- The general severity is worse than first stated, not better: at the report's
geometry a nominal 0.3 realised a majority in 12% of replicates.
Two more defects found on the way:
- stake_for(config) added, because scripts used rng_for and the engine uses
the spawned child — so every script that rebuilt a tree was analysing a
different network than the trajectory it was compared against. All scripts
and tests now use it.
- A coalition member could receive a private block BEFORE its parent: the
arrival was clamped against the PRODUCER's view of the parent and applied to
the whole coalition, so a member still awaiting a public parent got the child
first. Now clamped per member. Caught by the existing arrival-order test once
the stake derivation was corrected.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>