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reports/blend: record which evidence predates the seed-derivation change

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data/README promised that re-running with an unchanged config reproduces exactly.
That is no longer true for three of the eight runs: adding failure domains put
n_regions and region_locality into the topology seed, which changes the graph
drawn for every config, including those leaving both at their defaults.

default, percolation and redundancy predate that change. A spot-checked cell moves
by 0.3%, about 1.5 standard errors -- ordinary variation between independent
realisations, not a change in behaviour, and within the error bars the report
already states. Closed-form quantities are identical either way.

The README now says which runs are current, which are not, and why.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Marcin Pawlowski 2026-08-06 17:36:03 +02:00
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reports/blend/data/README.md
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@ -39,9 +39,19 @@ runs instead.
From [`tools/simulators/blend`](../../../tools/simulators/blend): `make sweep`,
`make redundancy`, `make percolation`, `make correlated-churn`, `make sweep-fullscale`. Results
land in that simulator's `runs/<timestamp>_<label>/`. Note that the seed streams depend on the
configuration, so re-running reproduces the *statistics*, not bit-identical numbers, unless the
config is unchanged — in which case it does reproduce exactly.
land in that simulator's `runs/<timestamp>_<label>/`.
**On exact reproduction.** Seed streams are derived from the configuration, so re-running a study
reproduces its *statistics* rather than bit-identical numbers whenever that derivation has moved.
It has moved once since these runs: adding failure domains (§3.9) put `n_regions` and
`region_locality` into the topology seed, which changes the graph drawn for every config, including
those leaving both at their defaults. `default/`, `percolation/` and `redundancy/` were produced
before that change and so no longer reproduce bit-exactly — a spot-checked cell moved by 0.3 %,
about 1.5 standard errors, which is ordinary variation between independent realisations rather than
a change in behaviour. `correlated-churn/`, `cover-traffic/`, `fullscale/`, `timing/` and
`attribution/` were produced by the current derivation. Quantities that are closed-form
(`deanon_rate`, the quota ceiling, the confidence formulae) depend only on counts and are identical
either way; the Monte-Carlo ones scatter within their stated error bars.
Two runs from the same session are deliberately **not** kept: the smoke runs (throwaway, far too
noisy to interpret) and an earlier 144-rounds/cell redundancy grid that was superseded because its