skele draft
This commit is contained in:
parent
91368c34ab
commit
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@ -51,7 +51,7 @@
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||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
"libuv": [
|
||||
],
|
||||
"environmentVariables": {
|
||||
"SHELL": "/bin/zsh",
|
||||
"XDG_SESSION_PATH": "/org/freedesktop/DisplayManager/Session0",
|
||||
"VSCODE_GIT_ASKPASS_HANDLE": "/run/user/1000/vscode-git-askpass-0b5315ab11a49d8bb5e6e45810668db6b53c8345.sock",
|
||||
"APPLICATION_INSIGHTS_NO_DIAGNOSTIC_CHANNEL": "true",
|
||||
"VSCODE_LOG_STACK": "false",
|
||||
"VSCODE_LOGS": "/home/petty/.config/Code - OSS/logs/20190531T095258",
|
||||
"ELECTRON_RUN_AS_NODE": "1",
|
||||
"DESKTOP_SESSION": "i3-with-shmlog",
|
||||
"EDITOR": "/usr/bin/nano",
|
||||
"GTK_MODULES": "canberra-gtk-module",
|
||||
"GIT_INDEX_FILE": "/home/petty/Github/status-im/token-economy-1/.git/index.lock",
|
||||
"XDG_SEAT": "seat0",
|
||||
"PWD": "/home/petty/Github/status-im/token-economy-1",
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"XDG_SESSION_DESKTOP": "i3-with-shmlog",
|
||||
"LOGNAME": "petty",
|
||||
"QT_QPA_PLATFORMTHEME": "qt5ct",
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||||
"XDG_SESSION_TYPE": "x11",
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||||
"_": "/home/petty/Github/status-im/token-economy-1/node_modules/.bin/lint-staged",
|
||||
"XAUTHORITY": "/home/petty/.Xauthority",
|
||||
"VSCODE_GIT_ASKPASS_NODE": "/usr/lib/electron/electron",
|
||||
"GIT_AUTHOR_DATE": "@1559310799 -0400",
|
||||
"XDG_GREETER_DATA_DIR": "/var/lib/lightdm-data/petty",
|
||||
"VSCODE_PREVENT_FOREIGN_INSPECT": "true",
|
||||
"GIT_EXEC_PATH": "/usr/lib/git-core",
|
||||
"HOME": "/home/petty",
|
||||
"LANG": "en_US.UTF-8",
|
||||
"VSCODE_IPC_HOOK_EXTHOST": "/tmp/vscode-ipc-d757b01b-898e-44d1-b9cd-f475cb2d70ab.sock",
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"VSCODE_IPC_HOOK": "/run/user/1000/vscode-ab2990ac-1.33.1-main.sock",
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||||
"VSCODE_CLI": "1",
|
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"GIT_ASKPASS": "/usr/lib/code/extensions/git/dist/askpass.sh",
|
||||
"XDG_SEAT_PATH": "/org/freedesktop/DisplayManager/Seat0",
|
||||
"GIT_AUTHOR_EMAIL": "corey@status.im",
|
||||
"GIT_PREFIX": "",
|
||||
"XDG_SESSION_CLASS": "user",
|
||||
"USER": "petty",
|
||||
"AMD_ENTRYPOINT": "vs/workbench/services/extensions/node/extensionHostProcess",
|
||||
"VSCODE_GIT_COMMAND": "commit",
|
||||
"DISPLAY": ":0",
|
||||
"SHLVL": "2",
|
||||
"GIT_EDITOR": ":",
|
||||
"XDG_VTNR": "7",
|
||||
"XDG_SESSION_ID": "2",
|
||||
"MOZ_PLUGIN_PATH": "/usr/lib/mozilla/plugins",
|
||||
"XDG_RUNTIME_DIR": "/run/user/1000",
|
||||
"VERBOSE_LOGGING": "true",
|
||||
"LC_ALL": "en_US.UTF-8",
|
||||
"ELECTRON_NO_ATTACH_CONSOLE": "1",
|
||||
"VSCODE_GIT_ASKPASS_MAIN": "/usr/lib/code/extensions/git/dist/askpass-main.js",
|
||||
"LC_COLLATE": "en_US.UTF-8",
|
||||
"GIT_AUTHOR_NAME": "Corey Petty",
|
||||
"BROWSER": "/usr/bin/chromium",
|
||||
"PATH": "/home/petty/Github/status-im/token-economy-1/node_modules/.bin:/home/petty/Github/status-im/node_modules/.bin:/home/petty/Github/node_modules/.bin:/home/petty/node_modules/.bin:/home/node_modules/.bin:/node_modules/.bin:/usr/bin:/home/petty/Github/status-im/token-economy-1/node_modules/.bin:/home/petty/Github/status-im/node_modules/.bin:/home/petty/Github/node_modules/.bin:/home/petty/node_modules/.bin:/home/node_modules/.bin:/node_modules/.bin:/usr/bin:/usr/lib/git-core:/usr/local/bin:/usr/bin:/bin:/usr/local/sbin:/usr/lib/jvm/default/bin:/usr/bin/site_perl:/usr/bin/vendor_perl:/usr/bin/core_perl",
|
||||
"PIPE_LOGGING": "true",
|
||||
"GDMSESSION": "i3-with-shmlog",
|
||||
"DBUS_SESSION_BUS_ADDRESS": "unix:path=/run/user/1000/bus",
|
||||
"VSCODE_NLS_CONFIG": "{\"locale\":\"en-us\",\"availableLanguages\":{},\"_languagePackSupport\":true}",
|
||||
"MAIL": "/var/spool/mail/petty",
|
||||
"VSCODE_HANDLES_UNCAUGHT_ERRORS": "true"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"userLimits": {
|
||||
"core_file_size_blocks": {
|
||||
"soft": "unlimited",
|
||||
"hard": "unlimited"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"data_seg_size_kbytes": {
|
||||
"soft": "unlimited",
|
||||
"hard": "unlimited"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"file_size_blocks": {
|
||||
"soft": "unlimited",
|
||||
"hard": "unlimited"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"max_locked_memory_bytes": {
|
||||
"soft": 65536,
|
||||
"hard": 65536
|
||||
},
|
||||
"max_memory_size_kbytes": {
|
||||
"soft": "unlimited",
|
||||
"hard": "unlimited"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"open_files": {
|
||||
"soft": 524288,
|
||||
"hard": 524288
|
||||
},
|
||||
"stack_size_bytes": {
|
||||
"soft": 8388608,
|
||||
"hard": "unlimited"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"cpu_time_seconds": {
|
||||
"soft": "unlimited",
|
||||
"hard": "unlimited"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"max_user_processes": {
|
||||
"soft": 128362,
|
||||
"hard": 128362
|
||||
},
|
||||
"virtual_memory_kbytes": {
|
||||
"soft": "unlimited",
|
||||
"hard": "unlimited"
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
"sharedObjects": [
|
||||
"linux-vdso.so.1",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libz.so.1",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libuv.so.1",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libcares.so.2",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libnghttp2.so.14",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libcrypto.so.1.1",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libssl.so.1.1",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libicui18n.so.64",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libicuuc.so.64",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libdl.so.2",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/librt.so.1",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libstdc++.so.6",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libm.so.6",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libgcc_s.so.1",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libpthread.so.0",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libc.so.6",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libnsl.so.2",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libicudata.so.64",
|
||||
"/lib64/ld-linux-x86-64.so.2",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libtirpc.so.3",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libgssapi_krb5.so.2",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libkrb5.so.3",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libk5crypto.so.3",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libcom_err.so.2",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libkrb5support.so.0",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libkeyutils.so.1",
|
||||
"/usr/lib/libresolv.so.2"
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
402
src/App.jsx
402
src/App.jsx
|
|
@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
|
|||
import React, { Component } from 'react';
|
||||
import { hot } from 'react-hot-loader/root';
|
||||
import { Runtime, Inspector } from '@observablehq/runtime';
|
||||
import notebook from '@corpetty/test-graph-embed';
|
||||
import Latex from 'react-latex';
|
||||
import notebook from '@corpetty/status-sticker-market-blog-embed';
|
||||
// import Latex from 'react-latex';
|
||||
import style from './App.css';
|
||||
|
||||
class App extends Component {
|
||||
|
|
@ -21,26 +21,17 @@ class App extends Component {
|
|||
if (name === 'viewof userbar') {
|
||||
return new Inspector(this.userbarRef.current);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (name === 'viewof percentUsersRegisterName') {
|
||||
return new Inspector(this.userConversionRef.current);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (name === 'viewof removalRate') {
|
||||
return new Inspector(this.removalRateRef.current);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (name === 'viewof ensUserbar') {
|
||||
return new Inspector(this.ensUserbarRef.current);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (name === 'viewof dollarPriceDomain') {
|
||||
return new Inspector(this.dollarPriceDomainRef.current);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (name === 'viewof discountRate') {
|
||||
return new Inspector(this.discountRateRef.current);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (name === 'viewof lockedUsdBar') {
|
||||
return new Inspector(this.lockedUsdBarRef.current);
|
||||
if (name === 'viewof percentUserBuysPack') {
|
||||
return new Inspector(this.percentUserBuysPackRef.current);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (name === 'viewof netPresentUtility') {
|
||||
return new Inspector(this.netPresentUtilityRef.current);
|
||||
if (name === 'viewof userBuyPerYear') {
|
||||
return new Inspector(this.userBuyPerYearRef.current);
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (name === 'viewof dollarPriceStickers') {
|
||||
return new Inspector(this.dollarPriceStickersRef.current);
|
||||
}
|
||||
return null;
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
|
@ -54,387 +45,58 @@ class App extends Component {
|
|||
|
||||
userbarRef = React.createRef();
|
||||
|
||||
userConversionRef = React.createRef();
|
||||
|
||||
removalRateRef = React.createRef();
|
||||
|
||||
ensUserbarRef = React.createRef();
|
||||
|
||||
dollarPriceDomainRef = React.createRef();
|
||||
|
||||
discountRateRef = React.createRef();
|
||||
|
||||
lockedUsdBarRef = React.createRef();
|
||||
percentUsersBuysPackRef = React.createRef();
|
||||
|
||||
netPresentUtilityRef = React.createRef();
|
||||
userBuyPerYearRef = React.createRef();
|
||||
|
||||
dollarPriceStickersRef = React.createRef();
|
||||
|
||||
render() {
|
||||
return (
|
||||
<div className="App">
|
||||
<h2>Introduction</h2>
|
||||
<p />
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
The Status Network has a utility token, the Status Network Token
|
||||
(SNT). What does that even mean? What utilities does it have and how
|
||||
do their uses affect the rest of the ecosystem? Does it impact value?
|
||||
What even is the value of a utility token?
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
These questions are hard, and there does not seem to be sufficient
|
||||
academic answers to them. The technology enabling a “utility token” is
|
||||
new, and transcendent of many older technologies. This consequently
|
||||
means the models used to evaluate the older technologies will never be
|
||||
able to completely describe the newer ones. We, as a community, need
|
||||
to build new ones and evaluate them rigorously.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
There is currently quite a bit of work being done in this field, but
|
||||
it is mostly for investment firms to make appropriate capital
|
||||
allocation decisions among a diversified portfolio of cryptoassets.
|
||||
While this is drastically important for growth and project funding,
|
||||
there is a lack of research on capital and resource allocation inside
|
||||
of a single network. More specifically, any utility token needs to be
|
||||
able to objectively evaluate various features and utilities of their
|
||||
platform, and how they affect their ecosystem. For instance, we need
|
||||
to be able to ask questions like:
|
||||
<em>
|
||||
“How can we objectively measure the difference in the rate users use
|
||||
feature X in Status and its respective impact on the ecosystem?”
|
||||
</em>
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
We will be launching Status with the following SNT use-cases, as
|
||||
described in the{' '}
|
||||
<a href="https://status.im/whitepaper.pdf">whitepaper</a> and{' '}
|
||||
<a href="https://status.im/snt-utility/">the website</a>:
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li>Teller Network</li>
|
||||
<li>Tribute to Talk</li>
|
||||
<li>ENS Usernames</li>
|
||||
<li>Sticker Market</li>
|
||||
<li>SNT Curated Dapp Store</li>
|
||||
<li>Liquid Funding (may not be available at launch)</li>
|
||||
<li>Network Incentivization (launching after V1)</li>
|
||||
<li>User Acquisition Engine (launching after V1)</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
Each of these features leverage the SNT token, but in very different
|
||||
ways. For instance, some features will require staking, some will
|
||||
actually burn the token, and some will incentivize sending and
|
||||
receiving. This means each will have differing effects on the supply
|
||||
and demand of the token itself, and will need to be modeled
|
||||
differently. It doesn’t stop there as Status is an open and
|
||||
permissionless platform for developers to build on and use, which
|
||||
means that anyone can build SNT use-cases that affect the overall
|
||||
supply and demand. But how do we know what effect a utility has? Where
|
||||
do we go to try and evaluate its usefulness?
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
To this end, we are starting a blog series detailing some of the
|
||||
research we are doing within Status to objectively evaluate the value
|
||||
flows of SNT, the potential effects of our implemented (and upcoming)
|
||||
SNT use cases within Status, and how our potential user growth impacts
|
||||
SNT. This work will encompass traditional economic and finance theory,
|
||||
work currently being done in crypto-economics, and novel methodology.
|
||||
That means a part of this endeavor is an attempt to get peer review
|
||||
and evaluation of what we do by you, the community!
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
<b>
|
||||
DISCLAIMER: The work in this article (and mentioned notebooks) is
|
||||
for modeling purposes only. The numbers herein are not to project
|
||||
actual values locked up in Status and should not be used for
|
||||
investment advice. It is our strict desire to create and improve
|
||||
models that describe value flow of SNT use-cases (and similar token
|
||||
use-cases), and how these use-cases compare to each other.
|
||||
</b>
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
Let’s start with the ENS naming system. In Status, for a little SNT,
|
||||
you can register your username on the Ethereum Name System (ENS) so
|
||||
others can find you easily. In order for us to apply models or
|
||||
understand the economics of a use case, we first have to understand
|
||||
what it is, how it works, and how it fits within the Status ecosystem.
|
||||
Let’s start by breaking down how ENS usernames work within Status:
|
||||
Let’s start by breaking down how the Sticker Market work within
|
||||
Status:
|
||||
<ol>
|
||||
<li>User selects a unique username, {`<username>`}</li>
|
||||
<li>User deposits 10 SNT into the ENS username dapp</li>
|
||||
<li>
|
||||
User is granted sole control over the subdomain {`<username>`}
|
||||
.stateofus.eth for 1 year
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li>
|
||||
User is able to get deposited funds after this yearly period, and
|
||||
release the username back into available names.
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li>
|
||||
User is now searchable within Status as {`<username>`} or
|
||||
{`<username>`}.stateofus.eth outside of the Status app.
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li>Artist posts a Sticker pack for sale</li>
|
||||
<li>Artist sets price of sticker pack</li>
|
||||
<li>User purchases Sticker pack for use</li>
|
||||
<li>User uses Stickers in Sticker pack in chat</li>
|
||||
</ol>
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
The use case and token flow are both relatively simple, but what are
|
||||
the effects on the network? Let’s first try and model what value this
|
||||
could potentially accrue over time. We can start by picking out the
|
||||
variables in this process to see how things depend on each other.
|
||||
Furthermore, the above values are what we currently use, but in terms
|
||||
of modeling, we should turn those into variables that allow us to see
|
||||
what effect each has on the overall mechanism. This can help inform us
|
||||
(and you) on appropriate choices.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<h2>Discussion of variables</h2>
|
||||
<h3>Number of Users</h3>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
It is clear that this all depends on how many users Status has in the
|
||||
app. If they are not using Status, then they won’t use the feature.
|
||||
This is our base metric, and we will model it using compounding growth
|
||||
and loss. We can start with a number of users that are using the
|
||||
network, and set additional growth and loss variables (in percentages)
|
||||
that define how this number changes over the next 10 years. This means
|
||||
that every year, we expect a certain percentage change in users based
|
||||
on the numbers of the previous year. Depending on how you set those
|
||||
percentages, the number of users can grow very rapidly! Go ahead and
|
||||
play with the following variables to see how the number of users
|
||||
change over the years.
|
||||
Here we will reuse a lot of the user estimations from the previous
|
||||
blog post on{` `}
|
||||
<a href="https://our.status.im/token-economics-ens-usernames/">
|
||||
ENS usernames
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<div ref={this.numberUserInputRef} />
|
||||
<div ref={this.userGrowthRateRef} />
|
||||
<div ref={this.userChurnRateRef} />
|
||||
<div ref={this.userbarRef} className={style.chart} />
|
||||
<h3>Conversion rate of users to ENS username</h3>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
Ok cool. We have our user base locked and loaded for the next 10
|
||||
years, but not everyone is going to register an ENS username. We can
|
||||
brand it, make it simple, and incentivize people to do it but the
|
||||
reality is that that number will never be 100%. So the number of
|
||||
people that DO decide to register an ENS username is what we want. We
|
||||
get this number by multiplying the total number of users by the
|
||||
adoption conversion rate, which is another variable.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
Now not all users will keep their usernames. Some people will remove
|
||||
their deposit after the year and bring their SNT back into
|
||||
circulation. Some people will leave Status altogether. If they never
|
||||
manually release their SNT from the ENS username contract, it can be
|
||||
considered locked forever. For this, we will continue to consider them
|
||||
users because from the contract's perspective, they are
|
||||
indistinguishable. We’ll model the people who release their username
|
||||
with another conversion factor. Go ahead and change these variables
|
||||
and see how the following graph changes.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<div ref={this.userConversionRef} />
|
||||
<div ref={this.removalRateRef} />
|
||||
<div ref={this.ensUserbarRef} />
|
||||
<h3>
|
||||
US Dollar Amount of SNT to Deposit, Discount Rate, and Net Present
|
||||
Value
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
Now the contract itself locks up a specific amount of SNT per
|
||||
username, but the goal is to model around a reasonable target price in
|
||||
US dollars and have the contract change over time to adapt as the
|
||||
price of SNT changes. Why do we do this? In order to evaluate value
|
||||
flow overtime we need a relatively stable unit by which to measure and
|
||||
normalize the value flows. We use US dollars due to the size,
|
||||
stability and data availability for that market. While one can argue
|
||||
that US dollars do not maintain their value in the long term, they at
|
||||
least depreciate at a stable and predictable rate. The mechanisms and
|
||||
governance around how this price change works is a subject still under
|
||||
discussion and will be addressed in future articles (but we’ve got
|
||||
some really cool ideas). So the knob we choose to tweak here is the US
|
||||
dollar amount of SNT to be locked up.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<div ref={this.dollarPriceDomainRef} />
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
An additional factor in using the US Dollar equivalent of SNT here is
|
||||
that we can add a discounted cash flow analysis based on historical
|
||||
data of USD. Future notebooks and articles will look into deriving and
|
||||
modeling a discount rate purely in cryptocurrency. For brevity, this
|
||||
article will only introduce the concept and gloss over a good portion
|
||||
of the details and derivation of the terms within. For more
|
||||
information, please visit the{' '}
|
||||
<a href="https://observablehq.com/@bgits/status-cost-of-capital">
|
||||
more detailed workbook
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
A simple surface level description of a discount rate is the rate you
|
||||
use to figure out how much present value a known future cash flow is
|
||||
worth. In other words, how to presently evaluate the amount of money
|
||||
you know will come in the future. Once you have the discount rate, you
|
||||
can calculate the <em>Net Present Value</em> (NPV), which is given by
|
||||
the following formula:
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
<Latex displayMode>
|
||||
{'$$NPV = \\sum^n_{t=1} \\frac{R_t}{(1+i)^t}$$'}
|
||||
</Latex>
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
where <Latex>$$t$$</Latex> is the number of time periods (10 in this
|
||||
article),
|
||||
<Latex>$$R_t$$</Latex>
|
||||
is the net cashflow of that particular time period , and{' '}
|
||||
<Latex>$$i$$</Latex> is the discount rate. There is also a potential
|
||||
for including the initial cost (<Latex>$$t=0$$</Latex>) of the
|
||||
project. We are purposely not including this as Status absorbs the
|
||||
investment cost for the network. There are quite a few subtle
|
||||
arguments here around things like hurdle rates, payback periods, etc,
|
||||
but we defer them and their potential utility to a future article.
|
||||
Anyway, the concept of discounting future value has been around for a
|
||||
long time. The earliest known reference was in the 6th century BCE{' '}
|
||||
<a href="http://www.aramaic-dem.org/English/History/The%20proverbs%20of%20the%20Aramean%20Ahikar.pdf">
|
||||
Proverbs of Ahiqar
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
:
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<blockquote>
|
||||
A sparrow in thy hand is better than a thousand sparrows flying
|
||||
</blockquote>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
You have probably heard a more common version is this, and Warren
|
||||
Buffet does a good job of{' '}
|
||||
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BP_TUDOYDrg">
|
||||
explaining it:
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<blockquote>
|
||||
How many birds are in the bush? When are you going to get them out?
|
||||
and how sure are you?
|
||||
</blockquote>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
Either way, more details on how we can do this will be explained in a
|
||||
future article. Below is a knob to change this discount rate. The
|
||||
higher the rate, the more unsure you are about the future income. Play
|
||||
with both of these knobs to find out how much money will be locked up
|
||||
in the ENS username contract over 10 years.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<div ref={this.discountRateRef} />
|
||||
<div ref={this.lockedUsdBarRef} />
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
and all of this gets summed together to give you the NPV of ENS
|
||||
Usernames within Status. To be more explicit, the NPV is the present
|
||||
value of something based on a projection into the future. Based on the
|
||||
values chosen above, we arrive at an NPV of:
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<div className="slide">
|
||||
<div ref={this.netPresentUtilityRef} />
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
In other words, after setting all of the above model inputs we have
|
||||
finally come to a way of looking at how "impactful" ENS
|
||||
usernames are in a single value. This value will become more useful as
|
||||
we build out other models for other use cases so we can compare them
|
||||
and see relative differences. Eventually, we will be able to see the
|
||||
relative impact a given utility within Status has within the entire
|
||||
ecosystem.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<h2>Example Scenario Analysis</h2>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
It is also useful to look at how this number changes as we tweak the
|
||||
input variables to see their impact. As an example, let's look at
|
||||
what happens if we are able to do something to increase the number
|
||||
Status users who actually register an ENS username (actually currently
|
||||
in the works). This is an example of the question we postulated in the
|
||||
beginning of this article. The default value is 50%, which leads to a
|
||||
NPV of $45,745,047.00 (holding all default values constant).
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
What happens if we're able to increase this number, say, to 75%?
|
||||
Keeping all other variables equal, this change alone changes the NPV
|
||||
to $74,335,701.00, which is a 62.5% increase.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
As another example, let's look at what happens if we increase our
|
||||
yearly growth rate, going from 300% per year to 350% per year. Holding
|
||||
everything else constant, with a 350% growth rate per year, we come to
|
||||
NPV of $129,104,065.00 which is a 182.2% growth and would constitute a
|
||||
superlinear relationship due to the effects of compounding growth.
|
||||
Based on these two simple examples, it is clear we should spend more
|
||||
time on user acquisition and continuous growth over increasing ENS
|
||||
username conversion rates (OR BOTH!).
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
As you can see, by making models of our SNT use-cases, we can start to
|
||||
ask questions and get numbers to give us actionable data (assuming a
|
||||
decent accuracy of the model). Even if the actual numbers are
|
||||
drastically wrong, but the relationships are correct, we can still
|
||||
come away with quality information on how we spend our time, money,
|
||||
and effort.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p />
|
||||
<h2>Thoughts and Conclusions</h2>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
So what have we learned from all of this? How can we change the model
|
||||
to better fit reality? Are their any actionable conclusions around ENS
|
||||
usernames that come from this information?
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
As stated previously, this particular use-case and work done lay the
|
||||
groundwork to build more complex models of the SNT use-cases. It also
|
||||
helps introduce the concept of how different variables affect growth
|
||||
and impact over time. If you plan to follow this series and work, we
|
||||
suggest making sure you understand each step along the way because all
|
||||
of this can get complicated fast. At the very least, we hope you have
|
||||
been able to grasp a little of what goes on behind the scenes at
|
||||
Status.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
You have probably noticed that the default values for each variable is
|
||||
not justified anywhere. This is a problem that we plan to face by
|
||||
using historical data to make justified default values. Right now, we
|
||||
have a toolset to see what happens when we change variables, but not
|
||||
<em> what those variables should be based in reality.</em> These
|
||||
workbooks are living documents that will change over time to include
|
||||
such work.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p />
|
||||
<h3>Call to Action</h3>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
Our goal is to continuously improve these methods and create more work
|
||||
not only around ENS usernames, but with the entire SNT ecosystem. This
|
||||
means we would love to get feedback from you, the community. If we
|
||||
have done something incorrectly, or you know of some way to better
|
||||
model various aspects herein, please join the discussion. We will be
|
||||
posting all of these articles in{' '}
|
||||
<a href="https://discuss.status.im">our discuss</a> and linking around
|
||||
the internet in relevant places.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
If you are interested in the models created here and want to see more
|
||||
detail, please see the more detailed notebooks on{' '}
|
||||
<a href="https://observablehq.com">ObservableHQ</a>. There, you can
|
||||
play, edit, and fork the notebooks for your own use cases. We would
|
||||
love to hear your feedback!
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li>
|
||||
<a href="https://observablehq.com/@bgits/status-ens-usernames-utility-value-exploration">
|
||||
ENS Usernames
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li>
|
||||
<a href="https://observablehq.com/@bgits/status-cost-of-capital?collection=@bgits/status">
|
||||
Status Cost of Capital
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li>
|
||||
Join the conversation in Status at{' '}
|
||||
<a href="https://get.status.im/chat/public/token-economics">
|
||||
#token-economics
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li>
|
||||
Learn more about SNT and the various use cases{' '}
|
||||
<a href="https://status.im/snt-utility/">here</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p />
|
||||
<h3>Future Improvements and Articles</h3>
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li>probability of failure</li>
|
||||
<li>justifications using historical data</li>
|
||||
<li>assign variables and create equations for each</li>
|
||||
<li>discussion around initial cost, hurdle rates, payback periods</li>
|
||||
<li>variable sticker prices and popularity</li>
|
||||
<li>market fees</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue