28 lines
584 B
Python
28 lines
584 B
Python
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import math
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BLKTIME = 17
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X = 0.28
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faclog = [1]
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for i in range(5000):
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faclog.append(faclog[-1] * len(faclog))
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def fac(x):
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return faclog[x]
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def poisson(expected, actual):
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if expected == 0:
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return 1 if actual == 0 else 0
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return 2.718281828 ** (-expected + actual * math.log(expected) - math.log(fac(actual)))
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def p_we_win(k, x):
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return 1 - (x / (1.0 - x)) ** k
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def p_we_win_after(s):
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p = 0
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for i in range(4000):
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p += poisson(s * 1.0 / BLKTIME, i) * p_we_win(i, X)
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return p
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for i in range(0, 7200, 12):
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print i, p_we_win_after(i)
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