Marcin Pawlowski f718f5f954
pd: stake distribution, so the emission ceiling is measured not asserted
The quota ceiling was closed-form only. This adds per-node stake so a run can
show nodes actually breaking it.

- assign_stake: uniform, or heavy-tailed zipf (s ~ 1/rank^a), which is what makes
  the ceiling bite -- the head sits orders of magnitude above it, the tail far below;
- inferred_alpha: converts true relative stake to the sigma/D_hat the lottery
  actually weighs, so a low estimate inflates every node alpha;
- simulate_epoch_emissions: measures the budget over a full epoch. Overrun happens
  at epoch scale and needs no graph, so this is cheap: proposals are Binomial over
  the epoch slots, a proposal cancels the next cover, and a node stays at exactly
  its quota until its wins no longer fit -- at which point it emits more often than
  everyone else, which is the signal cover traffic exists to suppress.

Measured against the closed form at N=20,000, zipf stake, over an epoch: the
predicted ceiling falls inside the transition band every time, and at D_hat/D = 1
the smallest overrunning node sits at 0.1468% against a predicted 0.1475%. The
D_hat/D normalisation is confirmed empirically -- deflating the estimate to 0.64
pulls the measured ceiling down with it, as the (D_hat/D)*alpha_max form requires.
With heavy-tailed stake 99.7% of nodes comply and only the head breaks; the
largest holder at 9.5% stake is some 65x over its allowance.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-06 17:59:58 +02:00
..
2026-07-30 15:04:09 +02:00