Marcin Pawlowski ef82ed614d

Review pass: reproduce every number from its data of record, fix what did not ...

Correctness/completeness review of the report and simulator. Verified against
the committed parquets: the sec 6.6 countable-ceiling table (cap-64 MDP sweep),
sec 6.10 Result 4's depth ceilings, the sec 3.4 uncle-selection table, all
adversary-variant numbers, the rho-boundary row-4 quotes (0.976 at rho=0.91,
4-sigma shortfall at 0.96, max cell 1.0024), and the sec 8.4 capstone table.
Three defects found, all fixed:

1. The collapse event was not reproducible from the committed script. Study D
   swept only the default (random) coalition, but the one observed collapse is
   a whale cell; the "once in 144 runs" count came from an ad-hoc probe. The
   committed sweep now carries the selection axis (96 runs) and reproduces the
   event: 1/12 in the whale 50% cell at delta_max = 8, never at 4. All six
   fold-related passages now quote the committed sweep, which also retires the
   stale "the full dynamics never reach it" wording in the sec 6 arc, the
   sec 6.2 intro, row 6 and item 1 -- text that contradicted item 18 since
   yesterday's finding.

2. capstone.py's printout could not reproduce the report's sec 8.4 table. The
   report's numbers are a per-replicate-tail aggregation (each replicate burns
   in against its own early-stop length); the script cut the tail at the ARM's
   max epoch, silently dropping any replicate that stopped earlier (7 of 8 in
   the adversary arm) and landing one rounding step off on three cells. The
   script now aggregates per replicate and prints the SEM; against the existing
   parquet it reproduces the table exactly (1.001/0.998, 0.342+-0.009 /
   0.343+-0.005, p_ref 1.000/0.990, 8 reps both arms). The report table was
   right all along; sec 6.8's p_ref quote (0.989, the per-arm value) is aligned
   to 0.990.

3. Small report fixes: slow-beta deflation rounded 0.765 -> "0.77" (now 0.76);
   fig13's caption now points at the fig36 ceiling instead of implying free
   recovery; row 5 cites the measured slow-beta standing deflation; the
   canonical-data paragraph lists the new studies' artifacts; the simulator
   README's layout block lists the new tests and scripts.

Adds a unit test for reorg.countable_recovery_from_depths (the one new
function that had none). 236 tests pass; the new-study parquets are copied to
the main checkout's runs/, where every other study's data of record lives.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-08-06 12:29:13 +02:00

..

tsi

Review pass: reproduce every number from its data of record, fix what did not

2026-08-06 12:29:13 +02:00