Marcin Pawlowski de618d7ea8
The sec 8.4 capstone was still reporting pre-countable numbers
Re-running the capstone under both anchors turned up something worse than the
anchor question. The uncle-anchored arm should have bit-reproduced the
committed capstone, since its key is unchanged -- and it did not. Bisecting
against the pre-session source showed my changes are clean (identical
trajectory, epochs=21, tail 0.994358 either way); the committed parquet is
simply stale. It is dated 24 July and has no uncle_model column at all, so it
predates the countable redesign. sec 8.4's headline table has been reporting
UNRESTRICTED-model numbers ever since that landed. sec 9's "all studies re-run"
note covers the slot-counting fix of 23/24 July, not the countable redesign of
4 August, and the capstone was missed.

Corrected, countable model, delta_max = 8, U = 2, W = 10, k = 2160, 8 reps:
  honest    D-hat/D 0.996 (was 1.001)   p_ref 0.944 (was 1.000)
  30% suppress  0.994 (was 0.998)       p_ref 0.936 (was 0.990)
Lower, and p_ref materially lower, because the first-fork restriction makes
some orphans unreferenceable that the earlier model counted. No recommendation
changes: accuracy sits inside the +-0.9% per-epoch noise floor below the hard
ceiling of 1, consensus is exact, p_ref stays far above the ~0.3 the soft rule
needs. sec 6.8's p_ref quotes came from the same stale run and are corrected too.

The anchor result the re-run was for: parent-anchored gives 0.996 honest --
unchanged -- but 0.974 under the 30% suppression adversary, with p_ref 0.875.
The effects compound: a tighter effective window leaves an orphan fewer chances
to be referenced before its PARENT ages out, and a suppressing adversary
removes some of those chances. Neither isolated sweep shows it, because sec 6.12's
honest arms hold the adversary at zero and its adversarial arms use a slack
cap. That is what the capstone is for, and it is the strongest argument for
pairing the anchor change with W = 12 rather than adopting it at W = 10.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-10 11:06:39 +02:00
2026-07-30 11:43:55 +02:00
2026-07-30 11:44:33 +02:00

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