Marcin Pawlowski c4577e7062
Measure the W = 12 pairing instead of asserting it
The report had twice recommended pairing the parent-anchored window with
W = 12, argued from the shape of the mechanism -- a parent gap running one to
two block-intervals longer consumes that much window -- but never measured.
Swept under the adversary that exposed the cost in the first place (the
capstone's geometry, 30 % uncle suppression, U = 2, k = 2160, 12 replicates):

  uncle  W=10 (today's recipe) : D-hat 0.9916  p_ref 0.933
  parent W=10                  : D-hat 0.9851  p_ref 0.913
  parent W=12 (proposed pair)  : D-hat 0.9908  p_ref 0.924

Parent-anchored at W = 12 lands within +0.0008 of today's recipe -- parity
inside one standard error -- so the anchor's cost under a suppressing adversary
is bought back exactly by the two extra block-intervals the longer parent gap
consumes. p_ref recovers more slowly (matching only at W = 15) but stays far
above the ~0.3 the soft rule needs, so it does not bind the recommendation.

The operative conclusion, now supported: adopt the anchor change and W = 12
TOGETHER, or neither. At W = 10 the anchor costs 0.0065 under this adversary,
which is the one regime where it is not free.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-10 11:34:40 +02:00
2026-07-30 11:43:55 +02:00
2026-07-30 11:44:33 +02:00

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