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The unpaired comparison could not answer the question it was asked. The two uncle models draw independent RNG streams -- uncle_model is in the config key, which is what makes --old bit-reproduce earlier runs -- so the arms differed in stake draw, peering graph and every lottery outcome, each comparison paid the between-run variance twice, and the per-cell floor (+-0.0015) sat an order of magnitude above the effect. Only delta_max = 5 resolved, and only after pooling. Adds `paired_streams`: the RNG root is derived from the model- independent part of the key, so a countable cell and its --old twin get the SAME stake, graph and lottery draws and the uncle rule is the only difference. Each replicate is then a matched pair and the shared variance cancels. Trajectories still diverge after epoch 0 through the genuine feedback (a different counted density changes the next epoch's difficulty), which is the signal. The flag is deliberately NOT in key(): it selects which key the seed is derived from, so including it would perturb every historical seed. Re-verified that --old still bit-reproduces the committed 2026-07-27 rho-boundary parquet, max |delta| = 0. Results (configs/fine-delay-paired.yaml, 40 replicates per arm): - Negative control becomes an IDENTITY check. With U = 0 no reference is taken, so shared streams must give bit-identical trajectories. All 200 replicate pairs differ by exactly 0.0. Unpaired, the same control only had to agree within +-0.025 and drifted by 0.016. - Per-cell SE shrinks by a median 1.6x (1.2-2.1x); widest 95% CI goes +-0.0015 -> +-0.0010. 5/15 cells resolve at |t| >= 2 (0.75 expected by chance); the largest, U=2 at delta_max=4, is t = 4.32 and clears Bonferroni for 15 tests. - The cost is a STEP, not the ramp the unpaired data suggested: delta_max 1-3 unresolved (t = 1.1, 1.8, 1.4), then delta_max 4 AND 5 both resolve at -0.0011 (t = 4.7) and -0.0009 (t = 3.7). Whole-band pooled -0.00060 +- 0.00021, t = 5.7 -- where the unpaired estimate of the same quantity (t = 2.8) had failed correction. So the first-fork restriction costs nothing measurable up to delta_max = 3 and about 0.1% at 4-5 -- an order of magnitude below the +-0.9% per-epoch sampling noise. Two bugs found while building this, both of which would have silently produced a wrong answer: - paired_streams was missing from metrics._CONFIG_FIELDS, so it never reached the parquet; plot_fine_delay.py falls back to the unpaired test when it cannot confirm pairing, so the sweep would have completed and quietly reported the old result. Caught before the run finished; the sweep was restarted and a test now pins the field. - The U=0 control check reported FAILS on a PERFECT control: paired, the gap is exactly 0 so its SE is 0 and t is 0/0. It now checks the gap itself when the streams are shared, and falls back to the t-test only when there is real spread. §3.2a is rewritten around the paired measurement; the unpaired sweep is retained in §9 as the power comparison that motivated it. Figures 34-35 regenerated, with the control annotation and provenance reflecting the design actually used. Tests: 214 passed (was 209). ruff clean. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
39 lines
2.8 KiB
YAML
39 lines
2.8 KiB
YAML
# PAIRED high-precision sweep of the low mixing-delay band (the design regime).
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#
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# Identical grid to fine-delay.yaml, but with paired_streams: true. The unpaired sweep pays the
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# between-run variance twice — the two uncle models draw independent stake, graph and lottery
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# streams — which puts a ~+-0.0015 per-cell floor on the countable-vs-unrestricted comparison,
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# an order of magnitude above the effect. Only delta_max = 5 resolved there, and only after
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# pooling across uncle caps.
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#
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# paired_streams drops the uncle-model marker from the RNG root, so a countable cell and its
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# --old twin get the SAME stake draw, the SAME peering graph and the SAME lottery outcomes;
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# the uncle rule is then the only difference and the per-replicate difference is a PAIRED
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# observation. The shared variance cancels, so the paired test should resolve the per-cell
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# effect directly. Trajectories still diverge after epoch 0 through the genuine feedback (a
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# different counted density changes the next epoch's difficulty) — that is the signal.
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#
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# Run TWICE — default (countable) and with --old — same grid. U=0 remains the negative control:
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# with no uncles AND a shared stream the two arms must now agree EXACTLY, which is a far
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# stronger check than the unpaired version (there it only had to agree within noise).
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# Latency is in SLOTS (1 slot = 1 s).
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n_nodes: [1000] # network size
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stake_dist: [pareto] # heavy-tailed (realistic) stake distribution
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topology: [blend] # Blend mixnet (the multi-slot fork regime)
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degree: [6] # peering degree of the d-regular graph
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link_latency_mean: [0.5] # natural geographic transport (sub-slot)
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link_latency_dist: [geo] # real-world geographic band mixture
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blend_hops: [3] # fixed hop count; delay is the swept knob
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blend_delay_max: [1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0] # THE fine region (integer slots)
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max_uncles: [0, 1, 2, 4] # U: 0 = negative control, then the levers
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uncle_strategy: [oldest] # spec selection: oldest-first fill
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init_dest: [common] # per-node initial D_est from agreement
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replicates: 40 # matches fine-delay.yaml for a like-for-like read
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base: # per-run settings shared by every cell
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k: 2160 # true security parameter
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epochs: 20 # equilibrium within ~2 epochs; burn 50%
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f: 0.03333333333333333 # slot activation coefficient (1/30)
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genesis_d_factor: 0.5 # start near true stake (cheap epoch 0)
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early_stop: true
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paired_streams: true # common random numbers across the two arms
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