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Found by the cover-traffic sweep: the 99%-safe stake ceiling FELL as the cover rate rose, while the mean bind rose to 0.38 -- backwards. quota_exceedance_prob summed the Poisson CDF by hand starting from exp(-lam). That underflows to zero past lam ~ 745, so the CDF collapsed to 0 and the function reported every node as exceeding its quota, which drove the bisection in max_alpha_for_confidence to a meaningless answer. The default rate is unaffected (lam ~ 32), but raising the cover rate reaches the broken regime immediately, because the quota and the tolerable block count grow in proportion. Replaced with scipy poisson.sf. Exceedance at the mean bind is now ~0.5 at every rate, as it must be, and the safe/mean ratio rises 0.65 -> 0.81 -> 0.90 -> 0.95 -> 0.98 across the swept rates: Poisson noise shrinks relative to a growing quota, so less headroom is needed for the same confidence. Two regression tests pin both. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>