Marcin Pawlowski ac6a309e58
Review fixes + high-precision design-band delay study
Acts on a correctness/completeness review of the countable uncle model
and its report material.

Correctness fixes in the report:
- s3.4 quoted 0.998 for W_abs=10 at the 8s budget; the run says 0.9963.
- s1 claimed both models >= 0.996 at U >= 1; countable U=2 delta=8 is
  0.9955. Corrected to >= 0.995.
- The s3.2 table presented two cells (U=1 at delta 16 and 32) as model
  differences. They are not resolvable: t = 0.46 and 0.47 over 5
  replicates. The table now carries +-SEM and a t per cell.
- s3.4 claimed the ~7-block-interval floor "carries over unchanged".
  Accuracy is still climbing past W=7 at every delay (8s: 0.989 ->
  0.996), so the claim is dropped. The 32s curve is non-monotonic with
  replicate SD up to 0.22 and is now flagged as noise, not a trend.
- 1-r was attributed to the first-fork restriction alone; it is the
  combined first-fork and capacity loss, which this measurement cannot
  separate. Hedged to match fig32's own axis label.

Completeness: the U=0 negative control was swept but never reported.
With no uncles the two models are identical by construction, yet they
differ by -0.23 at delta_max=32 (t=2.1) because they draw independent
RNG streams. That is the noise floor the rest of the grid must clear,
and it is now in s3.2, s9, fig30 and the config header.

New study (configs/fine-delay.yaml, scripts/plot_fine_delay.py, s3.2a,
fig34/fig35): the design band delta_max 1-5 at 40 replicates, both
models. Findings: every U >= 1 cell of both models lands in
0.998-1.001, flat in delay, while U=0 decays 0.810 -> 0.640. No
individual cell resolves a model difference (widest 95% CI +-0.15pp;
max t=2.59 vs Bonferroni 2.94 over 15 cells). Pooled across uncle caps
the first-fork cost is monotone in delay and separates from zero only
at delta_max=5 (-0.0014 +- 0.0007, t=3.7) -- below 0.15% everywhere in
the band, against +-0.9% per-epoch sampling noise.

Code:
- deep_ref_share is identically 0 on every real countable run: for a
  chain block B the producer's chain below B is the counting chain
  below B, so the counting-side parent-on-chain re-check cannot reject
  what selection emitted. It is a drift alarm, not a rate. Documented
  as such in measure.py, the plot docstring and the config header, and
  pinned by a new end-to-end test.
- Removed annotate_uncles: a second countable implementation that
  production never called, while carrying most of the selection test
  coverage. Tests now drive select_uncles_at_production through an
  annotate_via_production replay helper -- same assertions, live path.
- Added tests for the two previously uncovered branches of the live
  selection: the pmin/below chain walk that resolves parent-on-chain
  for candidates whose parent sits below the window, and the
  occupied-slot exclusion built from the chain walk.
- theory.q_effective and theory.window_miss_prob were unused and
  untested. Now used (the prediction figure reconstructs q_u through
  the identity the report quotes) and tested. The window_miss_prob test
  records that its "~ e^-W" docstring is the f->0 limit: the true decay
  is e^-1.017W at f=1/30, 16% off by W=10.
- Shared sem()/recovery_rate() moved into figures_pernode.py; fig30 and
  fig33 regenerated with SEM error bars and the U=0 control curve.
- Fixed the pre-existing E501 in bootstrap_dynamics.py; ruff clean.

Report prose reworked to read standalone: the countable model is
described as the rules under analysis and the former model as a
labelled "unrestricted" comparison baseline, with no dated banners and
no round-to-round narration.

Tests: 209 passed (was 202).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-04 20:48:38 +02:00

268 lines
12 KiB
Python

import numpy as np
from tsi_sim.blocktree import BlockTree
from tsi_sim.config import SimConfig
from tsi_sim.uncles import select_uncles_at_production
def make_tree(slots, parents, heights, leaders):
n = len(slots)
return BlockTree(
slot=np.array(slots, np.int64),
parent=np.array(parents, np.int64),
height=np.array(heights, np.int64),
leader=np.array(leaders, np.int64),
uncles=[() for _ in range(n)],
)
def annotate_via_production(tree, canonical_ids, config, rng):
"""Fill ``tree.uncles`` by replaying the PRODUCTION selection for each canonical block.
The simulator has exactly one selection implementation
(``select_uncles_at_production``, called from blocktree.py per produced block); this
replays it offline — oldest canonical block first, each block selecting as its producer
would have at ``t = slot[b]`` extending ``parent[b]`` — so the tests below exercise the
live code path rather than a parallel offline copy. Requires ``tree.slot`` ascending by
block id (true for every tree these tests build, and for real runs).
"""
arrival = np.zeros(tree.n_blocks) # every block already in the producer's view
for b in reversed(canonical_ids): # oldest first, so earlier refs are visible
tree.uncles[b] = select_uncles_at_production(
tree.slot, tree.parent, tree.uncles, arrival, nb=tree.n_blocks,
parent_id=int(tree.parent[b]), t=int(tree.slot[b]), config=config, rng=rng)
def _canonical_and_orphan_tree():
# genesis(0); canonical chain 1(slot0)->3(slot3)->4(slot5); orphan 2(slot1)
tree = make_tree(
slots=[-1, 0, 1, 3, 5],
parents=[-1, 0, 0, 1, 3],
heights=[0, 1, 1, 2, 3],
leaders=[-1, 0, 1, 2, 3],
)
canonical = [4, 3, 1] # tip-first
return tree, canonical
def test_oldest_selection_and_window():
tree, canonical = _canonical_and_orphan_tree()
cfg = SimConfig(max_uncles=1, uncle_window=300, uncle_strategy="oldest")
annotate_via_production(tree, canonical, cfg, np.random.default_rng(0))
# orphan 2 (slot1) is within window of block 3 (slot3) -> referenced there
referenced = {u for b in canonical for u in tree.uncles[b]}
assert referenced == {2}
def test_no_uncles_when_u_zero():
tree, canonical = _canonical_and_orphan_tree()
cfg = SimConfig(max_uncles=0)
annotate_via_production(tree, canonical, cfg, np.random.default_rng(0))
assert all(tree.uncles[b] == () for b in canonical)
def test_window_excludes_out_of_range_orphan():
# OLD model: uncle_window is read directly. (The countable model ignores uncle_window
# and derives the window from window_absorption — see the countable twin below.)
tree, canonical = _canonical_and_orphan_tree()
cfg = SimConfig(max_uncles=1, uncle_window=1, uncle_strategy="oldest", uncle_model="old")
annotate_via_production(tree, canonical, cfg, np.random.default_rng(0))
# orphan 2 at slot1; nearest canonical after it is block3 at slot3 -> gap 2 > W=1
referenced = {u for b in canonical for u in tree.uncles[b]}
assert referenced == set()
def test_countable_window_is_derived_from_absorption():
# countable: w_u = round(W / f). With f=0.5 and W=1, w_u = 2 slots: the orphan at slot1
# is out of range of the canonical block at slot5 (gap 4) and of slot3 (gap 2 <= 2 OK).
tree, canonical = _canonical_and_orphan_tree()
cfg = SimConfig(max_uncles=1, f=0.5, window_absorption=1.0)
assert cfg.effective_uncle_window == 2
annotate_via_production(tree, canonical, cfg, np.random.default_rng(0))
referenced = {u for b in canonical for u in tree.uncles[b]}
assert referenced == {2} # block3 (slot3) still reaches it
# shrink f so the derived window rounds to 1 slot: gap 2 > 1 -> excluded
tree2, canonical2 = _canonical_and_orphan_tree()
cfg2 = SimConfig(max_uncles=1, f=0.9, window_absorption=1.0)
assert cfg2.effective_uncle_window == 1
annotate_via_production(tree2, canonical2, cfg2, np.random.default_rng(0))
assert {u for b in canonical2 for u in tree2.uncles[b]} == set()
def _wide_orphan_tree():
# canonical 1(0)->6(6); orphans 2,3,4,5 at slots 1,2,3,4 (all within window of block6)
tree = make_tree(
slots=[-1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6],
parents=[-1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1],
heights=[0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2],
leaders=[-1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 0],
)
return tree, [6, 1] # tip-first
def test_random_strategy_deterministic_and_capped():
import numpy as np
tree_a, canon = _wide_orphan_tree()
tree_b, _ = _wide_orphan_tree()
cfg = SimConfig(max_uncles=2, uncle_window=300, uncle_strategy="random", uncle_random_p=0.5)
annotate_via_production(tree_a, canon, cfg, np.random.default_rng(7))
annotate_via_production(tree_b, canon, cfg, np.random.default_rng(7))
assert tree_a.uncles == tree_b.uncles # same seed -> identical
total = sum(len(tree_a.uncles[b]) for b in canon)
assert total <= cfg.max_uncles # capped
def test_random_p_one_matches_oldest():
import numpy as np
tree_r, canon = _wide_orphan_tree()
tree_o, _ = _wide_orphan_tree()
annotate_via_production(tree_r, canon, SimConfig(max_uncles=2, uncle_strategy="random",
uncle_random_p=1.0),
np.random.default_rng(1))
annotate_via_production(tree_o, canon, SimConfig(max_uncles=2, uncle_strategy="oldest"),
np.random.default_rng(1))
assert tree_r.uncles == tree_o.uncles # p=1 deterministically takes oldest-first
def test_random_p_zero_selects_nothing():
import numpy as np
tree, canon = _wide_orphan_tree()
annotate_via_production(tree, canon, SimConfig(max_uncles=4, uncle_strategy="random",
uncle_random_p=0.0),
np.random.default_rng(1))
assert all(tree.uncles[b] == () for b in canon)
def test_dedup_across_ancestors():
# Two canonical blocks both within window of the single orphan: only one references it.
tree = make_tree(
slots=[-1, 0, 1, 2, 3],
parents=[-1, 0, 0, 1, 3],
heights=[0, 1, 1, 2, 3],
leaders=[-1, 0, 9, 2, 3],
)
canonical = [4, 3, 1]
cfg = SimConfig(max_uncles=4, uncle_window=300, uncle_strategy="oldest")
annotate_via_production(tree, canonical, cfg, np.random.default_rng(0))
counts = sum(len(tree.uncles[b]) for b in canonical)
assert counts == 1 # orphan 2 referenced exactly once despite two eligible blocks
# --- countable model (spec counting rules) ---------------------------------------------
def _deep_fork_tree():
# canonical 1(slot0)->5(slot5); orphan branch 2(slot1,parent=1)->3(slot2,parent=2);
# orphan 4(slot3, parent=1). Blocks 2,4 are FIRST fork blocks; 3 is deep.
tree = make_tree(
slots=[-1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 5],
parents=[-1, 0, 1, 2, 1, 1],
heights=[0, 1, 2, 3, 2, 2],
leaders=[-1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4],
)
return tree, [5, 1] # tip-first
def test_countable_excludes_deep_fork_blocks():
tree, canonical = _deep_fork_tree()
cfg = SimConfig(max_uncles=4)
annotate_via_production(tree, canonical, cfg, np.random.default_rng(0))
referenced = {u for b in canonical for u in tree.uncles[b]}
assert referenced == {2, 4} # deep block 3 (parent is an orphan) excluded
def test_old_model_still_references_deep_fork_blocks():
tree, canonical = _deep_fork_tree()
cfg = SimConfig(max_uncles=4, uncle_model="old", uncle_window=300)
annotate_via_production(tree, canonical, cfg, np.random.default_rng(0))
referenced = {u for b in canonical for u in tree.uncles[b]}
assert referenced == {2, 3, 4} # --old: fork depth ignored
def test_countable_excludes_occupied_slots_and_dedups_per_slot():
# canonical 1(slot0)->5(slot4); orphans: 2 at slot0 (canonical-occupied), 3/4 at slot2.
tree = make_tree(
slots=[-1, 0, 0, 2, 2, 4],
parents=[-1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1],
heights=[0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2],
leaders=[-1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4],
)
canonical = [5, 1]
cfg = SimConfig(max_uncles=4)
annotate_via_production(tree, canonical, cfg, np.random.default_rng(0))
referenced = {u for b in canonical for u in tree.uncles[b]}
# slot0 is canonical-occupied -> orphan 2 excluded; slot2 pair -> exactly one picked
assert referenced == {3}
def test_production_selection_countable_rules():
from tsi_sim.uncles import select_uncles_at_production
# 0 genesis; 1 canonical slot0; 2 first-fork slot1 (parent 1); 3 deep slot2 (parent 2);
# 4/5 same-slot first-forks at slot3 (parent 1).
slot = np.array([-1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 3], np.int64)
parent = np.array([-1, 0, 1, 2, 1, 1], np.int64)
uncles: list = [() for _ in range(6)]
arrival = np.zeros(6) # everything arrived immediately
cfg = SimConfig(max_uncles=4)
sel = select_uncles_at_production(
slot, parent, uncles, arrival, nb=6, parent_id=1, t=5, config=cfg,
rng=np.random.default_rng(0))
assert sel == (2, 4) # deep 3 excluded; one per slot at slot3
old = SimConfig(max_uncles=4, uncle_model="old", uncle_window=300)
sel_old = select_uncles_at_production(
slot, parent, uncles, arrival, nb=6, parent_id=1, t=5, config=old,
rng=np.random.default_rng(0))
assert sel_old == (2, 3, 4, 5) # --old: depth and slot-dedup ignored
def test_production_parent_below_window_resolves_chain_membership():
"""Candidate parents can sit BELOW the reference window (uncles.py `pmin`/`below` walk).
The window walk only establishes chain membership for ancestors with slot >= t-w, so a
candidate whose parent is older than that needs the extra walk down to `pmin`. With a
narrow window this is the branch that decides first-fork eligibility.
chain 1(s0) -> 2(s1) -> 6(s8); off-chain 7(s2, parent 3) where 3(s2) is NOT on the chain.
Candidates at t=9 with w=4 are the blocks in slots [5,9): 4(s5, parent 2 -> ON chain,
countable) and 5(s6, parent 3 -> OFF chain, deep). Both parents sit below the window,
so only the `below` walk can tell them apart.
"""
from tsi_sim.uncles import select_uncles_at_production
# id: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
slot = np.array([-1, 0, 1, 2, 5, 6, 8], np.int64)
parent = np.array([-1, 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 2], np.int64)
uncles: list = [() for _ in range(7)]
arrival = np.zeros(7)
# w = round(1/0.25) = 4 slots; window at t=9 is [5, 9)
cfg = SimConfig(max_uncles=4, f=0.25, window_absorption=1.0)
assert cfg.effective_uncle_window == 4
sel = select_uncles_at_production(
slot, parent, uncles, arrival, nb=7, parent_id=6, t=9, config=cfg,
rng=np.random.default_rng(0))
assert sel == (4,) # 5 rejected: parent 3 is off-chain (deep) and below the window
def test_production_excludes_slots_occupied_by_chain_and_prior_uncles():
"""The occupied-slot exclusion is built from the producer's chain walk (uncles.py).
chain 1(s0) -> 2(s1) -> 5(s4); block 2 already references uncle 3(s2). Candidates at
t=5 are 3 (already referenced), 4(s2, same slot as the referenced 3 -> slot occupied)
and 6(s3, free slot). Only 6 survives.
"""
from tsi_sim.uncles import select_uncles_at_production
# id: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
slot = np.array([-1, 0, 1, 2, 2, 4, 3], np.int64)
parent = np.array([-1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1], np.int64)
uncles: list = [() for _ in range(7)]
uncles[2] = (3,) # block 2 already referenced uncle 3
arrival = np.zeros(7)
cfg = SimConfig(max_uncles=4) # w = 300, whole tree in window
sel = select_uncles_at_production(
slot, parent, uncles, arrival, nb=7, parent_id=5, t=5, config=cfg,
rng=np.random.default_rng(0))
assert sel == (6,) # 3 already referenced; 4 shares slot 2 with it; 6 is free