Marcin Pawlowski 74ee06047c
Make the model carry-over metric-specific instead of wholesale
§9 claimed that studies predating the countable model "carry over unchanged"
because no difference is resolvable at ρ < 1. That is true of accuracy and false
of the reference rate, and asserting it wholesale is what let the §8.4 capstone
sit at p_ref = 1.000 for weeks after the redesign made it 0.944.

Measured per metric off the committed paired band (δ_max 1–5, U ≥ 1, common
random numbers, so the uncle rule is the only difference):

  D̂/D            0.9994 vs 1.0000   +0.00055   t =   4.9   carries over
  fork rate       0.2256 vs 0.2255   -0.00010   t =  -2.0   carries over
  orphan rate     0.2256 vs 0.2255   -0.00009   t =  -2.2   carries over
  tip agreement   0.9943 vs 0.9950   +0.00070   t =   0.9   carries over
  p_ref           0.9260 vs 0.9998   +0.07381   t = 155.0   RE-MEASURE

p_ref fails in kind, not in degree: the unrestricted rule makes every in-window
orphan referenceable, so its ≈1.0 restates the model rather than measuring the
design. Any pre-countable p_ref is wrong by ~7 points.

Also corrects §6.7(1), which still asserted p_ref ≈ 1 for genuine latency
orphans — §6.8 had been corrected to the measured 0.944 but the earlier claim
was left standing — and drops "no difference is resolvable" from §9, which
contradicted §3.2a's pooled t = 5.7.

Adds scripts/model_carryover.py so the verdict is reproducible rather than
asserted, and a §9 study-table row. deep_ref_share is unaffected (0 by
construction under the countable rule); no other reference-structure metric is
quoted from a pre-countable run.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-10 11:47:51 +02:00
2026-07-30 11:43:55 +02:00
2026-07-30 11:44:33 +02:00

Logos Blockchain Research

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