Marcin Pawlowski 7434c9f062
Locate the W crossing to half a block-interval: 12 confirmed, 11.5 ruled out
The integer sweep put parity somewhere between W = 11 and W = 12 and no finer,
on a standard error of 0.00050 against a difference of the same size. The open
question was whether half an interval cheaper would do. It would not.

2112 paired runs: half-integer W from 9 to 14, 96 replicates, early_stop off at
30 epochs so each run gives a full 15-epoch equilibrium sample. Standard error
on a paired difference falls 0.00050 -> 0.00018.

Paired against today's recipe (uncle-anchored, W = 10), on-label replicates:

  parent W=11.0   -0.00176 +- 0.00020   t =  -8.9
  parent W=11.5   -0.00096 +- 0.00019   t =  -5.1   <- ruled out
  parent W=12.0   -0.00005 +- 0.00018   t =  -0.3   <- parity
  parent W=12.5   +0.00057 +- 0.00019   t =   3.0

Interpolated zero crossing W = 12.03, so 12 is not merely the first integer that
clears — it is the crossing to within the grid's resolution. The residual at 12
is 5e-5, two orders of magnitude below the +-0.9% per-epoch noise floor, and
p_ref follows at 0.937 against 0.938.

Two of the 96 replicates drew a stake vector on which adversary_frac = 0.3 is
unreachable and ran 0.005 and 0.094 coalitions. Being weaker they pull cells
toward parity, which would bias the crossing SMALLER, so the headline is the 94
on-label replicates; including all 96 gives the same crossing and t = -0.30.

The value has now survived three independent measurements, two design flaws and
a 3x increase in resolution without moving: 11.98, then 12.03. §8.5's spec-delta
row sharpened to match; §9 cites the new config and analysis script.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-10 21:23:43 +02:00
2026-07-30 11:43:55 +02:00
2026-07-30 11:44:33 +02:00

Logos Blockchain Research

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