Marcin Pawlowski 73aa71dc90
pd report: correlated-outage study, and 10^6 scaling confirmed
Closes the two open items from the review.

3.9 correlated (AS/region) outages, from configs/correlated-churn.yaml at 6400
rounds/cell: clustered failure does NOT fragment the network -- the live coverage
holds at 1.000 at every degree through 80% churn, and the percolation threshold
of 3.5 never appears, because removing a failure domain removes a whole
neighbourhood and leaves every surviving one intact. At degree 4 and 70% churn,
scattered failure annihilates the network (live coverage 0.001, delivery 0.000)
while the same number of clustered failures still delivers 30% of messages. The
cost is that dead domains become unreachable islands, so all-node coverage falls
instead. This reverses the caveat previously written, which asserted correlated
outages would degrade coverage faster; 3.5 uncorrelated threshold is in fact the
conservative case for the operating network.

10^6: the fullscale run confirms the results carry -- adversary closed forms
reproduced to 1.6e-4 at a million nodes, coverage under churn indistinguishable
from 10^5, delivery still tracking (1-u)^hops, and full delay up only 5.8% from
10^5. It samples 192 rounds/cell against 8000, so it is recorded as a scaling
check rather than a source of headline numbers, and the tables are not restated
from it.

Remaining churn caveat is now the honest one: adversarially placed churn (a cut
set rather than a random or clustered set) is still unmodelled, as are
heavy-tailed AS sizes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-06 17:59:57 +02:00
..