Marcin Pawlowski 8cc682aa49
Item 16: the revenue-optimal adversary is not the estimator's worst case
Both eta ceilings in sec 6.6 come from adversaries optimising something else
(revenue, reorg depth), so they bound eta from above without bounding the
damage from below. Optimising the estimate directly needs no ratio transform:
each transition consumes exactly one block-finding event, so minimising
D-hat = (canonical + p_ref * countable uncles)/events is a plain average-reward
MDP over the transition table that already carries the orphan counts. One
value-iteration pass, no bisection.

Unconstrained, the answer degenerates -- and usefully. The optimum is pure
abstention: publish nothing, adopt when overtaken, D-hat = 1 - alpha exactly,
revenue zero. That is sec 6.4's withholding, which the report already shows is
CORRECT measurement rather than mis-measurement, so the unconstrained objective
asks the wrong question.

The constrained one bites. Sweeping lam * (adversary blocks) - (contribution to
D-hat) enumerates policies; the line of interest is where revenue SHARE reaches
alpha, i.e. where attacking costs nothing versus mining honestly. At alpha=0.4
such a policy drives D-hat to 0.642 where the revenue-maximiser reaches 0.811
-- 17 points of extra deflation bought with the selfish premium alone. At 0.36
and 0.45 the gaps are 0.082 and 0.103. Below the 1/3 threshold nothing
profitable deflates, so the exposure starts exactly where selfish mining does.

This revises two claims that were about revenue but read as though they were
about the adversary in general: sec 6.7's "the adversary frontier is exactly
optimal selfish mining; no compounding lever remains" and sec 8.2's echo of it.
Both now say the PROFIT frontier is bounded and the estimator frontier is not
the same policy. Note the sweep parameter is deliberately non-monotone in
revenue -- selfish mining takes a bigger share of a smaller pie, so raw block
rate is maximised by honesty and large lam returns there; it enumerates
policies rather than tracing a path.

Also closes a fairness loop these findings opened. Sec 6.7(1) credits uncle
rewards with compensating orphaned honest producers, computed on the SM1 race
where every orphan is a first-fork block. Under a private chain 20-40% of the
honest blocks destroyed are unreferenceable by construction, so those producers
are uncompensatable at ANY w_u -- not underpaid because p_ref is low, but
unreachable because no valid block may name them. The fairness guarantee
inherits the same first-fork ceiling as the density repair. Logged as item 19,
flagged as a protocol-design question rather than something a schedule fixes.

_solve_mdp is refactored into _solve_reward/_greedy_policy/_stationary/
_policy_rates so both objectives share one implementation; optimal_policy_stats
reproduces its committed figures exactly (eta 0.4413, D-hat 0.9447/0.8111 at
alpha=0.4). 251 tests pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-06 14:54:52 +02:00
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tsi-sim-pernode — Cryptarchia TSI per-node network simulator (Phase 2)

The reduced-model simulators (../tsi-sim/, ../tsi-sim-mc/) collapse the network to one global canonical chain and one scalar D_est per epoch. This package removes that collapse: every one of the N nodes runs TSI individually with its own D_est, from its own partial view of the block tree under explicit message propagation over a peering graph. Its job is to test the reduced model's assumption that all honest nodes agree.

What it models

  • Per-node lottery: node i wins a slot with φ_f(w_i / D_est_i)D_est is a length-N vector, each node self-updating from its own view (the reduced model's key reuse: the sparse sampler already takes a per-node probability vector).
  • Topology (topology): three propagation models over the network.
    • full_mesh: every node one hop away with uniform latency L — reproduces the reduced model exactly (validation baseline).
    • regular: a random d-regular peering graph (configurable degree) with per-link latency (link_latency_dist ∈ {fixed, uniform, exp, geo}, all with mean link_latency_mean). A block reaches a node after the shortest weighted path from its producer (gossip flooding). Models direct block gossip.
    • blend: the same d-regular graph, but a block is first routed through the Blend mixnet before it is public — the producer picks blend_hops distinct relay nodes uniformly at random, the block hops producer → r₁ → … → r_hops over the graph, each relay waiting a Uniform(0, blend_delay_max) mixing delay before forwarding, and the last relay's forward is the final network-wide gossip that makes the block visible. Relays are blind forwarders (they learn the block only from that final gossip). The dominant latency is the per-hop mixing, not the graph transport — this is the multi-slot regime where forks and the stake underestimate appear and uncle references matter. Because the mixing delays are Uniform-bounded, the windowed fork choice stays exact (horizon (blend_hops+1)·max_path_latency + blend_hops·blend_delay_max).
  • Real-world latency (units). Latency is in slots and a slot is 1 s, so measured internet latencies (tenshundreds of ms) are fractions of a slot; arrivals are therefore kept sub-slot (float), not rounded to whole slots. link_latency_dist=geo draws each link from a geographic band mixture (~15 ms metro → ~200 ms antipodal, EU↔EU ≪ EU↔AU), rescaled so link_latency_mean stays the mean-latency knob. So regular runs the realistic sub-slot direct-gossip regime (~0.050.2 slot), where forks are rare, and blend runs the multi-slot Blend-mixnet regime, where per-hop mixing delays dominate.
  • Per-node views: one global block tree plus an (N × n_blocks) arrival matrix A; each node builds on / measures density over the blocks that have arrived at it. Uncle refs are baked at production from the producer's view (faithful — immutable once adopted).
  • Uncle model (uncle_model, CLI --old): the default countable model implements the spec's counting-only rules (cryptarchia-v1-protocol.md): only the first block of a fork (parent on the producer's chain) is referenceable/countable, the window is derived as w_u = window_absorption / f slots (W expected block-intervals, default W = 10 → 300 slots, bounded W ≤ 0.6·k), selection skips slots already occupied on the producer's chain and picks one uncle per slot, and the measurement pass re-checks every rule per reference (rejections tallied as deep_ref_share). Passing --old to tsi-sweep/tsi-verify runs the pre-redesign model unchanged — window = uncle_window slots, any-depth orphans referenceable, every baked reference counted — and bit-reproduces historical runs (the old model's RNG key is byte-identical to the pre-uncle_model key).
  • Metrics: per-node D_est spread (range, IQR), canonical-chain agreement (window prefix vs current tip), mean accuracy, and — with init_dest=heterogeneous — transient re-convergence.

Headline result

Per-node D_est disagreement collapses to zero. Because TSI reads density from a window buried far past k-finality, and all nodes seed the recursion from a common hardcoded genesis D, every node computes the same measured density midentical D_est (range ≈ 0, agreement_window = 1) — even under a sparse graph with high latency and heavy tip-level forking (agreement_tip can drop well below 1). This validates the reduced model. Topology/latency instead shift the shared mean accuracy (via fork rate → q), which uncle references recover just as in the reduced model. (Injected heterogeneous disagreement, which the real protocol never creates, is preserved by the common multiplicative update — a cautionary note, not protocol behaviour.)

Quick start

make install         # venv + editable install
make test            # unit + fast per-node checks
make verify          # per-node validation (parity, spread→0, agreement, topology effect)
# Run any configs/<name>.yaml by its stem (auto-discovered); each writes a dated runs/ folder:
make smoke           # tiny end-to-end grid + figures  (configs/smoke.yaml)
make default         # scaled-k divergence/topology sweep + figures  (configs/default.yaml)
make fullscale       # full-scale (true k) confirmation  (configs/fullscale.yaml)
make figures RESULTS=runs/<dir>/results.parquet          # re-render figures from a run
# Extra sweep flags: make fullscale SWEEP_ARGS="--batch-size 1 --mem-frac 0.6"

Scale & performance

  • Representation: one global block tree + (N × n_blocks) float64 arrival matrix A (sub-slot arrivals); topology path_latency[N,N] (per-node Dijkstra, once per trajectory).
  • n_blocks is NOT ~10·k in general — it tracks block production. n_blocks is the number of lottery wins in an epoch, ≈ E·Σᵢφ(wᵢ/D_est). At equilibrium that is ~10·k (≈ 22k at k=2160), but when D_est is far below the true stake — the collapsed-estimate regime, e.g. a small genesis_d_factorΣ(stake)/D_est = 1/genesis_d_factor is large and block production explodes proportionally. At genesis_d_factor=0.01, genesis epoch-0 produces ~2.0M blocks (100× equilibrium) → A ≈ 15 GB for a single worker; D_est self-corrects to equilibrium within ~2 epochs, so only the earliest epoch(s) are heavy. Raising genesis_d_factor toward 0.10.5 collapses this cost (0.1 → ~0.22M blocks → ~1.6 GB; 0.5 → ~44k → ~0.4 GB) and does not change the equilibrium result, which is measured after burn-in.
  • Sliding-window prune (prune_arrival, default on): the arrival matrix never needs per-node columns for blocks past the horizon — under deterministic latency a block with slot ≤ t H has reached every node, so its column is finalized and dropped. We keep columns only for blocks inside max(horizon, uncle_window) slots in a base-offset buffer, turning the O(N·n_blocks) matrix into O(N · keep-span-blocks). This is what makes the collapsed regime affordable: at N=1000/k=2160/gdf=0.01 the buffer is ~tens of MB instead of the ~15 GB full matrix (fork choice, the parent clamp, uncle selection, and per-node tips all reconstruct exactly from it). It is bit-identical to the full matrix at jitter_mean == 0 (proven by test_prune_matches_full_matrix across topologies/uncles/gdf); with jitter it falls back to the full matrix (whose safety clamp keeps the tree valid). Set prune_arrival: false to force the full matrix (the parity oracle). The measurement pass also argmaxes in node-row bands so it adds only a small temporary. Divergence sweeps run at scaled k=256 (configs/default.yaml); full-scale k=2160 is validated to N ≤ 2000.
  • Worker sizing (auto, RAM-safe): both A (~N·n_blocks, incl. the block explosion above) and path_latency (~N²) grow, so the sweep runner sizes the loky pool to fit a RAM budget (--mem-frac, default 0.7 of physical RAM) instead of blindly using every core. The per-worker estimate realises the seeded stake to compute the genesis-epoch block count (expected_peak_blocks), so it reflects a low-genesis_d_factor explosion rather than assuming ~10·k. A calibration probe measures a real worker's peak RSS (one genesis epoch of the heaviest config in a spawned process) whenever the estimate is heavy or N > 2000 (--calibrate {auto,always,never}, default auto; the probe bounds itself to physical RAM so it fails loud rather than freezing).
  • Fail-loud memory guard (memguard.py): every worker checks size before allocating both big arrays — the (N × n_blocks) A (in build_tree_pernode) and the (N × N) path_latency (in build_path_latency, built first) — and raises ArrivalMatrixTooLarge if it would exceed the budget TSI_ARRIVAL_BYTES_BUDGET. The sweep sets that to each worker's RAM share; unset or 0 is not "unlimited" — it resolves to DEFAULT_BUDGET_FRAC (0.9) of physical RAM, so a bare run_trajectory, tsi-verify, the probe, or a --mem-frac 0 run all keep an absolute per-process ceiling. So a mis-estimated block explosion (or a huge N) fails with a clear message instead of freezing the machine.
  • Cost: dominated by the per-node fork choice (batched per slot) and the arrival-matrix fill; the sparse lottery is negligible. Across-config joblib loky parallelism reused.
  • Measurement optimisation (measure.py): the per-node canonical/density/agreement pass was ~95% of an epoch. It is now deduped by tip (nodes sharing a tip share every derived quantity — high agreement collapses N to a handful of computations) and the per-tip chain walk runs as a cached numba kernel (pure-Python fallback if numba is absent). Exact — bit-identical to the naive loop (test_measure). Measured ~9× end-to-end (heavy config 11.3 s → 1.2 s) and ~14× on measurement-bound configs. numba comes via the accel extra (pip install -e ".[dev,accel]", done by make install).
  • Windowed fork choice (windowed_fork_choice, default on): bounds the block-tree build's per-slot candidate scan to a horizon of the max path latency plus the fully-propagated best tip, turning O(n_blocks^2) fork choice into O(n_blocks*H). Exact when link latency is deterministic (jitter_mean == 0) — bit-identical to a full scan (parity test). With jitter_mean > 0 it becomes a tiny approximation and warns; a safety clamp still keeps the tree valid, and windowed_fork_choice=False forces a guaranteed-exact full scan.
  • Reproducibility: every draw spawns off SeedSequence(hash(config)) — child 0 stake, 1 graph, 2 init, 3+e epoch e. graph_seed/degree/link_latency_* are part of the config identity.
    • numpy-version caveat: the accel extra (numba) requires numpy<2.5, so installing it pins numpy to 2.4.x. numpy's Generator.choice(replace=False) is not stream-stable across the 2.4↔2.5 boundary, and the sparse lottery uses it heavily only in the degenerate collapsed-estimate regime (D_est → 0 ⇒ win-prob → 1 ⇒ count ≈ n_slots). So a run on numpy 2.5 and a run on numpy 2.4 give identical results for all normal configs but can diverge chaotically in that one extreme regime (e.g. degree=4, link_latency=8, where the estimate has already collapsed to ~0.13 — off the safe chart). The differences are tiny (max |Δ mean_ratio| ≈ 3e-3) and change no conclusion; pin numpy if bit-reproducibility across environments is required.

Layout

src/tsi_sim/   constants config rng stake lottery topology blocktree(+build_tree_pernode)
               uncles(+select_uncles_at_production) tsi(+update_D_vec) epoch engine metrics
               theory verify  plotting/{style, figures_pernode, make_figures}
configs/       smoke.yaml  default.yaml  fullscale.yaml
               countable-vs-old.yaml  absorption-window.yaml   (countable-model studies)
               fine-delay.yaml   (delay 1-5 at 40 replicates: the design band, high precision)
tests/         test_{pernode,config,rng,lottery,blocktree,uncles,tsi_counting,stake,
                     theory,latency,theory_convergence,countable_counting,
                     countable_selfish,...}.py
scripts/       plot_countable_vs_old.py  (countable-vs-unrestricted comparison figures)
               plot_fine_delay.py        (design-band accuracy + model gap with 95% CIs)
               countable_selfish.py      (first-fork ceiling under the selfish MDP; fig36)
               adversary_variants.py     (whale/jitter/slow-beta variants + the withhold-load sweep)