3 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Marcin Pawlowski
ac6a309e58
Review fixes + high-precision design-band delay study
Acts on a correctness/completeness review of the countable uncle model
and its report material.

Correctness fixes in the report:
- s3.4 quoted 0.998 for W_abs=10 at the 8s budget; the run says 0.9963.
- s1 claimed both models >= 0.996 at U >= 1; countable U=2 delta=8 is
  0.9955. Corrected to >= 0.995.
- The s3.2 table presented two cells (U=1 at delta 16 and 32) as model
  differences. They are not resolvable: t = 0.46 and 0.47 over 5
  replicates. The table now carries +-SEM and a t per cell.
- s3.4 claimed the ~7-block-interval floor "carries over unchanged".
  Accuracy is still climbing past W=7 at every delay (8s: 0.989 ->
  0.996), so the claim is dropped. The 32s curve is non-monotonic with
  replicate SD up to 0.22 and is now flagged as noise, not a trend.
- 1-r was attributed to the first-fork restriction alone; it is the
  combined first-fork and capacity loss, which this measurement cannot
  separate. Hedged to match fig32's own axis label.

Completeness: the U=0 negative control was swept but never reported.
With no uncles the two models are identical by construction, yet they
differ by -0.23 at delta_max=32 (t=2.1) because they draw independent
RNG streams. That is the noise floor the rest of the grid must clear,
and it is now in s3.2, s9, fig30 and the config header.

New study (configs/fine-delay.yaml, scripts/plot_fine_delay.py, s3.2a,
fig34/fig35): the design band delta_max 1-5 at 40 replicates, both
models. Findings: every U >= 1 cell of both models lands in
0.998-1.001, flat in delay, while U=0 decays 0.810 -> 0.640. No
individual cell resolves a model difference (widest 95% CI +-0.15pp;
max t=2.59 vs Bonferroni 2.94 over 15 cells). Pooled across uncle caps
the first-fork cost is monotone in delay and separates from zero only
at delta_max=5 (-0.0014 +- 0.0007, t=3.7) -- below 0.15% everywhere in
the band, against +-0.9% per-epoch sampling noise.

Code:
- deep_ref_share is identically 0 on every real countable run: for a
  chain block B the producer's chain below B is the counting chain
  below B, so the counting-side parent-on-chain re-check cannot reject
  what selection emitted. It is a drift alarm, not a rate. Documented
  as such in measure.py, the plot docstring and the config header, and
  pinned by a new end-to-end test.
- Removed annotate_uncles: a second countable implementation that
  production never called, while carrying most of the selection test
  coverage. Tests now drive select_uncles_at_production through an
  annotate_via_production replay helper -- same assertions, live path.
- Added tests for the two previously uncovered branches of the live
  selection: the pmin/below chain walk that resolves parent-on-chain
  for candidates whose parent sits below the window, and the
  occupied-slot exclusion built from the chain walk.
- theory.q_effective and theory.window_miss_prob were unused and
  untested. Now used (the prediction figure reconstructs q_u through
  the identity the report quotes) and tested. The window_miss_prob test
  records that its "~ e^-W" docstring is the f->0 limit: the true decay
  is e^-1.017W at f=1/30, 16% off by W=10.
- Shared sem()/recovery_rate() moved into figures_pernode.py; fig30 and
  fig33 regenerated with SEM error bars and the U=0 control curve.
- Fixed the pre-existing E501 in bootstrap_dynamics.py; ruff clean.

Report prose reworked to read standalone: the countable model is
described as the rules under analysis and the former model as a
labelled "unrestricted" comparison baseline, with no dated banners and
no round-to-round narration.

Tests: 209 passed (was 202).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-04 20:48:38 +02:00
Marcin Pawlowski
cb58cd7ead
Round-4 TSI report review: apply findings, editorial pass, code + figure fixes
Applied the reconstructed round-4 review to the TSI parameter-selection report
set (reports/tsi) and executed the follow-ups.

Report (reports/tsi):
- Applied the must+should findings across README + parts 1-4: cross-part numeric
  corrections, figure-caption fixes, spec reconciliation, and cross-file companions
  (hops-degradation and notch/reward numbers, tip-agreement ordering, density-window
  timing, VRF -> ZK Proof-of-Leadership, w_u window/reward gloss).
- Editorial pass for timeless voice (no "now adopted / merged / coin" narration) and
  a gentle spec-safety framing (recommendations are thresholds; the protocol's
  MAX_UNCLES=4 sits safely above them).
- Added the fork-rate-vs-scale table (6.10), defined "grinding gain", promoted the
  clock-skew study to its own paragraph, added the correlated-latency caveat, and
  moved fig27/fig28 beside their discussion.
- Documented the Blend cascade in 2: hops propagate over the shared gossip graph
  (not direct links), the final broadcast comes from the last relay, relays are
  blind forwarders.

Simulator (tools/simulators/tsi/tsi-sim-pernode):
- Docstring/dead-code fixes: theory.block_count_ceiling (legacy framing), measure,
  reorg (catch-up reading), metrics (removed two dead helpers), config (fixed_point
  10^-6; clock_skew_max/lottery_chunks documented inert), stake_vs_delay.
- Generator correctness + regenerated figures: figures_pernode.CONFIG_COLS now
  exhaustive (f no longer pooled); rho_boundary_analysis SEM across replicates +
  hollow floored markers + de-hardcoded ell_mean (measured from the run's graph);
  appendix_fluct per-N sigma + ~18x title (figB2); bootstrap_dynamics driving
  estimate so fig1 epoch-0 matches genesis.
- pytest: 186 passed; report links 528/0 dangling.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-31 13:13:03 +02:00
Marcin Pawlowski
24da2fc8b3
Importing tsi-sim v3 2026-07-30 18:57:10 +02:00