The results document was written as a reply to a briefing note that will not be
circulated, so it depended on a file no reader would have -- and linked to one
that was never committed, so the link was dead on GitHub regardless.
Rewritten to be self-contained: it now states what the added spec section
claims, what was measured, and the verdict, without reference to the brief.
The six claims and six experiments are stated in its own terms rather than by
the brief's C-numbers and E-numbers, and it carries its own reproduction table
mapping each section to the config or script and run directory behind it.
Renamed fork-loss-validation.md accordingly.
The configs and scripts written for these experiments carried the same
dependency in their header comments ("Handoff E5", "Claim C2"); those now
describe what they measure directly.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
E5 needs to watch whether per-recipient delay variance manufactures the
depth->=2 forks the countable rule cannot reach, and no recorded metric measured
that. p_ref conflates "unreachable by construction" with "eligible but never
picked up" -- the distinction that turned out to be the whole answer to item 5 --
and deep_ref_share is 0 by construction under the countable model, since the
proposer's candidate filter drops deep-fork blocks before any reference to one
is proposed. deep_orphan_share is the fraction of in-window orphans sitting
below the first block of their fork, computed from the depth array fork_stats
already builds.
Also fixes a splat-unpack in test_selfish_engine that silently re-bound to the
wrong quantities when fork_stats grew this field (it read deep_orphan_share as
p_ref_honest). fork_stats has now gained a field twice; both call sites unpack
by position explicitly.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Settles E1-E4 and E6 of handoff-fork-loss-validation.md against spec d6fd7648.
E1 costs nothing and reframes everything: analysis-block-times-blend-network.md
sets blending_delay as a FIXED per-hop dwell (the 3d+5 max-delay arithmetic
gives 14 s at d=3 and 11 s at d=2, matching its prose), not a mean or a bound.
The simulator's Uniform(0, delta_max) matches a 2 s dwell in the mean at
delta_max = 4, so D_vis = 8 s and rho = 0.27 -- inside the committed 40-replicate
paired design band, which answers C1-C3 from data of record.
C1 refuted: every U>=1 cell sits at 0.9985-0.9997, not 0.986. C2's mechanism is
right but its size is ~17x over: the paired first-fork cost is 0.08 pp pooled
(95% CI [0.03, 0.13], t = 3.08), resolved only because the arms share streams --
the U=0 negative control is exactly 0.00000 +- 0.00000. C3 is refuted in the
UNFAVOURABLE direction: the no-uncle loss is 33% at N=1000 and 34.6% at N=5000
(42% / 49.5% at delta_max = 8), so the section understates what uncles buy by
about half. C4 stands with ~7x margin (U=3 still recovers at rho = 1.87). C5 is
right in effect, wrong in wording -- the knee is at W_abs ~ 5, so the spec's 10
is ~2x above it, which is "has margin", not "never binds".
C6 is the section's real omission. The deployed estimator quantises the target
rate at PRECISION = 1e3, and measured in the full dynamics that reads
1.01026 +- 0.00056 against a closed form of 1.0101 -- a 1.0% bias ~13x the
first-fork cost the section is concerned with, opposite in sign, removed by a
one-constant change. It could not be measured before because PRECISION was a
module constant pinned at the RECOMMENDED 1e6; f_precision is now a config
field, appended to the RNG key only when non-default so no committed run moves.
Also from the guide: uncle_window_slots now floors rather than rounds, matching
w_u := floor(W/f) (identical at the defaults; matters only for the W and f
sweeps).
Reviewed sec 4.3's argument as sec 6 asks, and it holds -- inclusion stayed soft
("may reference fewer uncles than it could ... and its block remains valid"), so
row 10, the anti-mandate argument and the suppress adversary are all unaffected;
only the CONTENT of a reference became validity-gated. One correction: the
"no incentive to deviate" clause does still exist, so sec 8.5's implication (ii)
is live, not moot.
E5 -- the jitter diagnostic, and the only experiment that could invalidate the
report rather than the section -- is not run and is flagged as such.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Open item 11 listed "a random (rather than oldest-first) uncle-selection draw"
as an untested spec sensitivity. The spec does not leave it open: Uncle
Selection in cryptarchia-v1-protocol.md has the proposer take the oldest
candidates first, deterministically, because an uncle expires w_u slots after
its own slot. That is exactly what every result in the report already uses, so
the item is a conformance match, not a gap -- and the simulator comment calling
uncle_random_p "the spec's unbiased coin" cites text the spec no longer has.
What is genuinely open is deviation FROM that rule: selection is proposer-local
and the uncles field is never validated. configs/uncle-selection.yaml measures
the cost. A proposer that includes each candidate on a fair coin instead loses
up to 0.10 in D-hat/D, and 0.063 at the recommended W = 10 once rho ~ 1
(0.902 vs 0.965, t = -8.6). At the design point the margin survives but is
spent: 0.980 vs 0.997 against a 0.98 bar. The loss does not close as W grows,
because a coin wastes opportunities rather than queue capacity and a well-sized
window is precisely what keeps the queue short enough for that to bite.
This matters for the sec 8.5 reward recommendation: the spec argues a proposer
has no incentive to deviate BECAUSE uncles grant no reward, and paying them
removes that argument.
Also adds adversary_selection=whale (the largest holders at matched stake, for
the untested concentration case). The marker is appended to key() only when
non-default so every historical run's seed stays byte-identical, guarded by a
test alongside the paired_streams one.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
The report is now reports/tsi/README.md, so browsing to reports/tsi/
lands on the report itself rather than on an index that points at it.
The old index carried nothing the report lacked except the note that
report-figures/ holds the figures of record (the simulator folder does
not commit its own), which is folded into §9; its section table is
superseded by the report's own contents block. The "[Index]" self-link
in the header is replaced by the simulator link the index used to carry.
The contents block was inconsistent: §2 listed subsection titles, §3 and
§6 listed bare numbers with no titles at all, and the appendices were
crammed onto one line while their subsections went unlisted. Rebuilt
from the document's actual headings so every entry has a real title,
top-level entries carry a one-line gloss, and subsections sit indented
under their parent. It now covers all 47 anchors, including B.1-B.4 and
C.1-C.2 which were previously absent.
scripts/build_html.py follows the rename (DOCS is a single document) and
still renders clean: 47 anchors, 0 broken internal links, 0 unrewritten
.md links, 37 images.
Also adds configs/countable-vs-old-paired.yaml — the paired, 20-replicate
version of the overload grid. §3.2a now rests on a paired design while
§3.2 still rests on 5 unpaired replicates, which is why its U=1 cells at
delta_max 16 and 32 sit unresolved at t ~ 0.5 against a replicate sd of
0.15. That sweep is running; the report is not yet updated from it.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
The unpaired comparison could not answer the question it was asked. The
two uncle models draw independent RNG streams -- uncle_model is in the
config key, which is what makes --old bit-reproduce earlier runs -- so
the arms differed in stake draw, peering graph and every lottery
outcome, each comparison paid the between-run variance twice, and the
per-cell floor (+-0.0015) sat an order of magnitude above the effect.
Only delta_max = 5 resolved, and only after pooling.
Adds `paired_streams`: the RNG root is derived from the model-
independent part of the key, so a countable cell and its --old twin get
the SAME stake, graph and lottery draws and the uncle rule is the only
difference. Each replicate is then a matched pair and the shared
variance cancels. Trajectories still diverge after epoch 0 through the
genuine feedback (a different counted density changes the next epoch's
difficulty), which is the signal.
The flag is deliberately NOT in key(): it selects which key the seed is
derived from, so including it would perturb every historical seed.
Re-verified that --old still bit-reproduces the committed 2026-07-27
rho-boundary parquet, max |delta| = 0.
Results (configs/fine-delay-paired.yaml, 40 replicates per arm):
- Negative control becomes an IDENTITY check. With U = 0 no reference is
taken, so shared streams must give bit-identical trajectories. All 200
replicate pairs differ by exactly 0.0. Unpaired, the same control only
had to agree within +-0.025 and drifted by 0.016.
- Per-cell SE shrinks by a median 1.6x (1.2-2.1x); widest 95% CI goes
+-0.0015 -> +-0.0010. 5/15 cells resolve at |t| >= 2 (0.75 expected by
chance); the largest, U=2 at delta_max=4, is t = 4.32 and clears
Bonferroni for 15 tests.
- The cost is a STEP, not the ramp the unpaired data suggested:
delta_max 1-3 unresolved (t = 1.1, 1.8, 1.4), then delta_max 4 AND 5
both resolve at -0.0011 (t = 4.7) and -0.0009 (t = 3.7). Whole-band
pooled -0.00060 +- 0.00021, t = 5.7 -- where the unpaired estimate of
the same quantity (t = 2.8) had failed correction.
So the first-fork restriction costs nothing measurable up to
delta_max = 3 and about 0.1% at 4-5 -- an order of magnitude below the
+-0.9% per-epoch sampling noise.
Two bugs found while building this, both of which would have silently
produced a wrong answer:
- paired_streams was missing from metrics._CONFIG_FIELDS, so it never
reached the parquet; plot_fine_delay.py falls back to the unpaired
test when it cannot confirm pairing, so the sweep would have completed
and quietly reported the old result. Caught before the run finished;
the sweep was restarted and a test now pins the field.
- The U=0 control check reported FAILS on a PERFECT control: paired, the
gap is exactly 0 so its SE is 0 and t is 0/0. It now checks the gap
itself when the streams are shared, and falls back to the t-test only
when there is real spread.
§3.2a is rewritten around the paired measurement; the unpaired sweep is
retained in §9 as the power comparison that motivated it. Figures 34-35
regenerated, with the control annotation and provenance reflecting the
design actually used.
Tests: 214 passed (was 209). ruff clean.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Acts on a correctness/completeness review of the countable uncle model
and its report material.
Correctness fixes in the report:
- s3.4 quoted 0.998 for W_abs=10 at the 8s budget; the run says 0.9963.
- s1 claimed both models >= 0.996 at U >= 1; countable U=2 delta=8 is
0.9955. Corrected to >= 0.995.
- The s3.2 table presented two cells (U=1 at delta 16 and 32) as model
differences. They are not resolvable: t = 0.46 and 0.47 over 5
replicates. The table now carries +-SEM and a t per cell.
- s3.4 claimed the ~7-block-interval floor "carries over unchanged".
Accuracy is still climbing past W=7 at every delay (8s: 0.989 ->
0.996), so the claim is dropped. The 32s curve is non-monotonic with
replicate SD up to 0.22 and is now flagged as noise, not a trend.
- 1-r was attributed to the first-fork restriction alone; it is the
combined first-fork and capacity loss, which this measurement cannot
separate. Hedged to match fig32's own axis label.
Completeness: the U=0 negative control was swept but never reported.
With no uncles the two models are identical by construction, yet they
differ by -0.23 at delta_max=32 (t=2.1) because they draw independent
RNG streams. That is the noise floor the rest of the grid must clear,
and it is now in s3.2, s9, fig30 and the config header.
New study (configs/fine-delay.yaml, scripts/plot_fine_delay.py, s3.2a,
fig34/fig35): the design band delta_max 1-5 at 40 replicates, both
models. Findings: every U >= 1 cell of both models lands in
0.998-1.001, flat in delay, while U=0 decays 0.810 -> 0.640. No
individual cell resolves a model difference (widest 95% CI +-0.15pp;
max t=2.59 vs Bonferroni 2.94 over 15 cells). Pooled across uncle caps
the first-fork cost is monotone in delay and separates from zero only
at delta_max=5 (-0.0014 +- 0.0007, t=3.7) -- below 0.15% everywhere in
the band, against +-0.9% per-epoch sampling noise.
Code:
- deep_ref_share is identically 0 on every real countable run: for a
chain block B the producer's chain below B is the counting chain
below B, so the counting-side parent-on-chain re-check cannot reject
what selection emitted. It is a drift alarm, not a rate. Documented
as such in measure.py, the plot docstring and the config header, and
pinned by a new end-to-end test.
- Removed annotate_uncles: a second countable implementation that
production never called, while carrying most of the selection test
coverage. Tests now drive select_uncles_at_production through an
annotate_via_production replay helper -- same assertions, live path.
- Added tests for the two previously uncovered branches of the live
selection: the pmin/below chain walk that resolves parent-on-chain
for candidates whose parent sits below the window, and the
occupied-slot exclusion built from the chain walk.
- theory.q_effective and theory.window_miss_prob were unused and
untested. Now used (the prediction figure reconstructs q_u through
the identity the report quotes) and tested. The window_miss_prob test
records that its "~ e^-W" docstring is the f->0 limit: the true decay
is e^-1.017W at f=1/30, 16% off by W=10.
- Shared sem()/recovery_rate() moved into figures_pernode.py; fig30 and
fig33 regenerated with SEM error bars and the U=0 control curve.
- Fixed the pre-existing E501 in bootstrap_dynamics.py; ruff clean.
Report prose reworked to read standalone: the countable model is
described as the rules under analysis and the former model as a
labelled "unrestricted" comparison baseline, with no dated banners and
no round-to-round narration.
Tests: 209 passed (was 202).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implement the countable uncle model from the Cryptarchia spec's
counting-only reference rules, and make it the simulator default.
Counting rules (uncles.py, measure.py):
- Only the first block of a fork (parent on the producer's chain) is
referenceable and countable, which makes every reference verifiable
from chain data alone.
- The reference window is derived from a window-absorption parameter,
w_u = W_abs/f slots (W_abs in expected block-intervals, default 10,
bounded W_abs <= 0.6*k), replacing the free-standing uncle_window.
- Selection skips slots already occupied on the producer's chain and
takes at most one uncle per slot.
- The measurement pass re-checks every rule per reference and tallies
rejections as deep_ref_share.
The pre-redesign model is preserved behind --old on tsi-sweep and
tsi-verify. Its RNG key is byte-identical to the pre-uncle_model key,
so --old bit-reproduces the historical runs.
Supporting changes: uncle_model and window_absorption config surface
with validation (config.py, constants.py); accuracy closed form over
the effective q_u (theory.py); plumbing through tsi.py, epoch.py,
sweep.py, blocktree.py, metrics.py, verify.py, figures_pernode.py.
Studies and figures:
- configs/countable-vs-old.yaml -- delay x U grid, run under both
models on the same grid.
- configs/absorption-window.yaml -- accuracy vs W_abs at U=1.
- scripts/plot_countable_vs_old.py renders fig30-fig33 into
reports/tsi/report-figures/.
Tests: tests/test_countable_counting.py (7 cases) covering first-fork
eligibility, derived-window bounds, occupied-slot exclusion, and
per-reference re-checking; extensions to test_uncles.py,
test_config.py, test_slot_counting.py. Full fast suite: 202 passed.
Also adds CLAUDE.md (graphify project instructions) and ignores
editor/local-agent state plus the vendored Equi-X benchmark clone.
The reports/tsi/ prose describing this model is held back for a
separate editorial pass.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
