Correctness/completeness review of the report and simulator. Verified against
the committed parquets: the sec 6.6 countable-ceiling table (cap-64 MDP sweep),
sec 6.10 Result 4's depth ceilings, the sec 3.4 uncle-selection table, all
adversary-variant numbers, the rho-boundary row-4 quotes (0.976 at rho=0.91,
4-sigma shortfall at 0.96, max cell 1.0024), and the sec 8.4 capstone table.
Three defects found, all fixed:
1. The collapse event was not reproducible from the committed script. Study D
swept only the default (random) coalition, but the one observed collapse is
a whale cell; the "once in 144 runs" count came from an ad-hoc probe. The
committed sweep now carries the selection axis (96 runs) and reproduces the
event: 1/12 in the whale 50% cell at delta_max = 8, never at 4. All six
fold-related passages now quote the committed sweep, which also retires the
stale "the full dynamics never reach it" wording in the sec 6 arc, the
sec 6.2 intro, row 6 and item 1 -- text that contradicted item 18 since
yesterday's finding.
2. capstone.py's printout could not reproduce the report's sec 8.4 table. The
report's numbers are a per-replicate-tail aggregation (each replicate burns
in against its own early-stop length); the script cut the tail at the ARM's
max epoch, silently dropping any replicate that stopped earlier (7 of 8 in
the adversary arm) and landing one rounding step off on three cells. The
script now aggregates per replicate and prints the SEM; against the existing
parquet it reproduces the table exactly (1.001/0.998, 0.342+-0.009 /
0.343+-0.005, p_ref 1.000/0.990, 8 reps both arms). The report table was
right all along; sec 6.8's p_ref quote (0.989, the per-arm value) is aligned
to 0.990.
3. Small report fixes: slow-beta deflation rounded 0.765 -> "0.77" (now 0.76);
fig13's caption now points at the fig36 ceiling instead of implying free
recovery; row 5 cites the measured slow-beta standing deflation; the
canonical-data paragraph lists the new studies' artifacts; the simulator
README's layout block lists the new tests and scripts.
Adds a unit test for reorg.countable_recovery_from_depths (the one new
function that had none). 236 tests pass; the new-study parquets are copied to
the main checkout's runs/, where every other study's data of record lives.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The countable model can reference only the first block of a fork, so a
discarded chain of h honest blocks yields one countable uncle, not h. Sec 6.6
reads the estimator repair off a free knob eta and quotes it at eta = 1 --
attainable under SM1, which acts the moment the honest branch reaches length 1
and so never buries a second block. The optimal SSZ policy waits and does bury
them, and there the deployed counting rules cap eta at 0.44 (alpha = 0.4,
gamma = 0), landing D-hat at 0.81 rather than the 0.94 an unrestricted count
gives -- and the ceiling degrades with alpha while the unrestricted value
improves. So SM1 is a faithful proxy for selfish-mining revenue (0.484 vs
0.489) but not for TSI's estimator damage.
selfish_mdp: carry per-branch orphan counts on the transition table so the
accounting cannot drift from the race logic; optimal_policy_stats solves the
policy's stationary distribution for per-event canonical/orphan rates. The
per-event rates sum to 1 (every block is canonical or orphaned), which the
tests assert as an independent check on the whole derivation.
reorg: the same ceiling for the depth-maximising adversary -- 0.52 at
alpha = 0.30 with the measured honest fork rate -- reached from the other
direction. Neither adversary optimises deflation directly, so both ceilings
are upper bounds on eta; that gap is logged as open item 16.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
