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Author SHA1 Message Date
Marcin Pawlowski
06364797a8
Pair the overload grid; the first-fork cost is resolved at every load 
§3.2 rested on 5 unpaired replicates while §3.2a used a paired design.
Re-running the delta_max 4/8/16/32 grid with common random numbers and
20 replicates (configs/countable-vs-old-paired.yaml) changes the answer
at the design end.

The cost is resolved at EVERY delay and grows monotonically with load:

  delta_max=4  (rho 0.36)  -0.0013  t= 4.0   (unpaired: not resolved)
  delta_max=8  (rho 0.56)  -0.0034  t= 9.8   (unpaired: not resolved)
  delta_max=16 (rho 0.96)  -0.0102  t=17.5
  delta_max=32 (rho 1.76)  -0.0228  t=22.4

So §3.2's claim that "at the operating loads (rho < 1) no difference
between the models is detectable at all" was an artefact of the weak
design, not a property of the system. There is a difference; it is just
small — 0.13% and 0.34% at the two sub-unit loads. The new delta_max=4
figure (-0.0013 at 20 reps) independently reproduces §3.2a's (-0.0011 at
40 reps) from a separate sweep.

11 of 12 U>=1 cells resolve individually; max t = 29.0 against a
Bonferroni threshold of 2.87 for twelve tests. The U=0 control is exact:
80/80 replicate pairs differ by 0.0.

New finding at U=1 under overload: the sign FLIPS and the countable rule
wins, +0.0127 (t = 7.6), positive in 19 of 20 pairs. Both models have
collapsed at rho ~ 1.76 with a single uncle slot, but when capacity is
the binding constraint the countable rule's occupied-slot exclusion
means its one reference always recovers a NEW slot, while the
unrestricted rule dedups by block id and can spend that reference on an
orphan whose slot is already counted. Measured recovery agrees:
q_u = 0.591 countable vs 0.579 unrestricted. The slot-vs-block
distinction of §2.1 is worth most exactly where references are scarcest.

Code: paired_gaps and pooled_by_delay move from scripts/plot_fine_delay
into figures_pernode so both plot scripts share one implementation;
plot_countable_vs_old now detects paired runs and uses the
per-replicate difference, falling back to the unpaired two-sample test
otherwise. Two hardcoded reporting values fixed — the Bonferroni
threshold was pinned to 2.935 and printed nan for any grid that was not
15 cells, and a per-cell comparison line had a hardcoded /15 denominator;
both now derive from the grid actually run.

Figures 30-32 regenerated from the paired grid. Tests: 214 passed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-08-05 13:09:21 +02:00
Marcin Pawlowski
15e876e90a
Correctness pass: derive rho in code, and the absolute vs-1.0 test 
Two findings from re-reviewing the fine-delay section.

1. The rho values I put in s3.2a were wrong. The report derives
   rho = f*D_vis with D_vis = hops*delta_max/2 + (hops+1)*ell_mean from
   a MEASURED ell_mean (1.211 slots at N=1000/degree=6), not from the
   link_latency_mean parameter (0.5). Hand-substituting a guessed 1.5
   inflated every value by ~0.04: the band is rho 0.21-0.41, not
   0.25-0.45.

   To stop that recurring, graph_ell_mean moves out of
   rho_boundary_analysis.py into figures_pernode.py, joined by a new
   rho_for() that both scripts and any future quotation go through;
   plot_fine_delay.py now prints the derived rho per delay.

   This also exposed an inconsistency in the existing s3.2 table, which
   rounded delta_max=4 to "rho ~ 0.4" while s3.2a called the same cell
   0.36 and prose elsewhere already used 0.56 for delta_max=8. The s3.2
   column now carries the derived values (0.36/0.56/0.96/1.76).

2. Testing each cell against the exact target 1.0 -- the same question
   the gap test asks, without reference to the other model --
   corroborates the first-fork onset independently. Unrestricted: 1/15
   cells below 1 (t=-2.09, chance). Countable: 4/15, and not scattered
   -- delta_max=4 at U=1, and ALL THREE caps at delta_max=5 (-0.0012 to
   -0.0019, t=-2.5..-3.7). A shortfall appearing at every cap at once,
   only at the top of the band, only under the restricted model, is the
   first-fork cost seen absolutely.

   That makes "one uncle slot is sufficient -- not approximately,
   exactly" too strong as I had written it. s3.2a now states the
   residual (0.1-0.2% at the top of the band, zero below delta_max=3),
   reconciles it with the s1 headline, and notes that since all three
   caps show the same shortfall the residual is not a capacity limit.
   The bound quoted in s1 moves from "below 0.15%" to "<= 0.2%".

Also adds the new run directories to s9's canonical list, which covered
every other study but not these.

Tests: 209 passed. ruff clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-08-05 10:34:33 +02:00
Marcin Pawlowski
ac6a309e58
Review fixes + high-precision design-band delay study 
Acts on a correctness/completeness review of the countable uncle model
and its report material.

Correctness fixes in the report:
- s3.4 quoted 0.998 for W_abs=10 at the 8s budget; the run says 0.9963.
- s1 claimed both models >= 0.996 at U >= 1; countable U=2 delta=8 is
  0.9955. Corrected to >= 0.995.
- The s3.2 table presented two cells (U=1 at delta 16 and 32) as model
  differences. They are not resolvable: t = 0.46 and 0.47 over 5
  replicates. The table now carries +-SEM and a t per cell.
- s3.4 claimed the ~7-block-interval floor "carries over unchanged".
  Accuracy is still climbing past W=7 at every delay (8s: 0.989 ->
  0.996), so the claim is dropped. The 32s curve is non-monotonic with
  replicate SD up to 0.22 and is now flagged as noise, not a trend.
- 1-r was attributed to the first-fork restriction alone; it is the
  combined first-fork and capacity loss, which this measurement cannot
  separate. Hedged to match fig32's own axis label.

Completeness: the U=0 negative control was swept but never reported.
With no uncles the two models are identical by construction, yet they
differ by -0.23 at delta_max=32 (t=2.1) because they draw independent
RNG streams. That is the noise floor the rest of the grid must clear,
and it is now in s3.2, s9, fig30 and the config header.

New study (configs/fine-delay.yaml, scripts/plot_fine_delay.py, s3.2a,
fig34/fig35): the design band delta_max 1-5 at 40 replicates, both
models. Findings: every U >= 1 cell of both models lands in
0.998-1.001, flat in delay, while U=0 decays 0.810 -> 0.640. No
individual cell resolves a model difference (widest 95% CI +-0.15pp;
max t=2.59 vs Bonferroni 2.94 over 15 cells). Pooled across uncle caps
the first-fork cost is monotone in delay and separates from zero only
at delta_max=5 (-0.0014 +- 0.0007, t=3.7) -- below 0.15% everywhere in
the band, against +-0.9% per-epoch sampling noise.

Code:
- deep_ref_share is identically 0 on every real countable run: for a
  chain block B the producer's chain below B is the counting chain
  below B, so the counting-side parent-on-chain re-check cannot reject
  what selection emitted. It is a drift alarm, not a rate. Documented
  as such in measure.py, the plot docstring and the config header, and
  pinned by a new end-to-end test.
- Removed annotate_uncles: a second countable implementation that
  production never called, while carrying most of the selection test
  coverage. Tests now drive select_uncles_at_production through an
  annotate_via_production replay helper -- same assertions, live path.
- Added tests for the two previously uncovered branches of the live
  selection: the pmin/below chain walk that resolves parent-on-chain
  for candidates whose parent sits below the window, and the
  occupied-slot exclusion built from the chain walk.
- theory.q_effective and theory.window_miss_prob were unused and
  untested. Now used (the prediction figure reconstructs q_u through
  the identity the report quotes) and tested. The window_miss_prob test
  records that its "~ e^-W" docstring is the f->0 limit: the true decay
  is e^-1.017W at f=1/30, 16% off by W=10.
- Shared sem()/recovery_rate() moved into figures_pernode.py; fig30 and
  fig33 regenerated with SEM error bars and the U=0 control curve.
- Fixed the pre-existing E501 in bootstrap_dynamics.py; ruff clean.

Report prose reworked to read standalone: the countable model is
described as the rules under analysis and the former model as a
labelled "unrestricted" comparison baseline, with no dated banners and
no round-to-round narration.

Tests: 209 passed (was 202).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-08-04 20:48:38 +02:00
Marcin Pawlowski
bd2ac7b7be
Countable uncle model: spec counting rules, sweeps, figures 
Implement the countable uncle model from the Cryptarchia spec's
counting-only reference rules, and make it the simulator default.

Counting rules (uncles.py, measure.py):
- Only the first block of a fork (parent on the producer's chain) is
  referenceable and countable, which makes every reference verifiable
  from chain data alone.
- The reference window is derived from a window-absorption parameter,
  w_u = W_abs/f slots (W_abs in expected block-intervals, default 10,
  bounded W_abs <= 0.6*k), replacing the free-standing uncle_window.
- Selection skips slots already occupied on the producer's chain and
  takes at most one uncle per slot.
- The measurement pass re-checks every rule per reference and tallies
  rejections as deep_ref_share.

The pre-redesign model is preserved behind --old on tsi-sweep and
tsi-verify. Its RNG key is byte-identical to the pre-uncle_model key,
so --old bit-reproduces the historical runs.

Supporting changes: uncle_model and window_absorption config surface
with validation (config.py, constants.py); accuracy closed form over
the effective q_u (theory.py); plumbing through tsi.py, epoch.py,
sweep.py, blocktree.py, metrics.py, verify.py, figures_pernode.py.

Studies and figures:
- configs/countable-vs-old.yaml -- delay x U grid, run under both
  models on the same grid.
- configs/absorption-window.yaml -- accuracy vs W_abs at U=1.
- scripts/plot_countable_vs_old.py renders fig30-fig33 into
  reports/tsi/report-figures/.

Tests: tests/test_countable_counting.py (7 cases) covering first-fork
eligibility, derived-window bounds, occupied-slot exclusion, and
per-reference re-checking; extensions to test_uncles.py,
test_config.py, test_slot_counting.py. Full fast suite: 202 passed.

Also adds CLAUDE.md (graphify project instructions) and ignores
editor/local-agent state plus the vendored Equi-X benchmark clone.

The reports/tsi/ prose describing this model is held back for a
separate editorial pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-08-04 18:48:46 +02:00
Marcin Pawlowski
cb58cd7ead
Round-4 TSI report review: apply findings, editorial pass, code + figure fixes 
Applied the reconstructed round-4 review to the TSI parameter-selection report
set (reports/tsi) and executed the follow-ups.

Report (reports/tsi):
- Applied the must+should findings across README + parts 1-4: cross-part numeric
  corrections, figure-caption fixes, spec reconciliation, and cross-file companions
  (hops-degradation and notch/reward numbers, tip-agreement ordering, density-window
  timing, VRF -> ZK Proof-of-Leadership, w_u window/reward gloss).
- Editorial pass for timeless voice (no "now adopted / merged / coin" narration) and
  a gentle spec-safety framing (recommendations are thresholds; the protocol's
  MAX_UNCLES=4 sits safely above them).
- Added the fork-rate-vs-scale table (6.10), defined "grinding gain", promoted the
  clock-skew study to its own paragraph, added the correlated-latency caveat, and
  moved fig27/fig28 beside their discussion.
- Documented the Blend cascade in 2: hops propagate over the shared gossip graph
  (not direct links), the final broadcast comes from the last relay, relays are
  blind forwarders.

Simulator (tools/simulators/tsi/tsi-sim-pernode):
- Docstring/dead-code fixes: theory.block_count_ceiling (legacy framing), measure,
  reorg (catch-up reading), metrics (removed two dead helpers), config (fixed_point
  10^-6; clock_skew_max/lottery_chunks documented inert), stake_vs_delay.
- Generator correctness + regenerated figures: figures_pernode.CONFIG_COLS now
  exhaustive (f no longer pooled); rho_boundary_analysis SEM across replicates +
  hollow floored markers + de-hardcoded ell_mean (measured from the run's graph);
  appendix_fluct per-N sigma + ~18x title (figB2); bootstrap_dynamics driving
  estimate so fig1 epoch-0 matches genesis.
- pytest: 186 passed; report links 528/0 dangling.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-31 13:13:03 +02:00
Marcin Pawlowski
24da2fc8b3
Importing tsi-sim v3 2026-07-30 18:57:10 +02:00