Re-running the capstone under both anchors turned up something worse than the
anchor question. The uncle-anchored arm should have bit-reproduced the
committed capstone, since its key is unchanged -- and it did not. Bisecting
against the pre-session source showed my changes are clean (identical
trajectory, epochs=21, tail 0.994358 either way); the committed parquet is
simply stale. It is dated 24 July and has no uncle_model column at all, so it
predates the countable redesign. sec 8.4's headline table has been reporting
UNRESTRICTED-model numbers ever since that landed. sec 9's "all studies re-run"
note covers the slot-counting fix of 23/24 July, not the countable redesign of
4 August, and the capstone was missed.
Corrected, countable model, delta_max = 8, U = 2, W = 10, k = 2160, 8 reps:
honest D-hat/D 0.996 (was 1.001) p_ref 0.944 (was 1.000)
30% suppress 0.994 (was 0.998) p_ref 0.936 (was 0.990)
Lower, and p_ref materially lower, because the first-fork restriction makes
some orphans unreferenceable that the earlier model counted. No recommendation
changes: accuracy sits inside the +-0.9% per-epoch noise floor below the hard
ceiling of 1, consensus is exact, p_ref stays far above the ~0.3 the soft rule
needs. sec 6.8's p_ref quotes came from the same stale run and are corrected too.
The anchor result the re-run was for: parent-anchored gives 0.996 honest --
unchanged -- but 0.974 under the 30% suppression adversary, with p_ref 0.875.
The effects compound: a tighter effective window leaves an orphan fewer chances
to be referenced before its PARENT ages out, and a suppressing adversary
removes some of those chances. Neither isolated sweep shows it, because sec 6.12's
honest arms hold the adversary at zero and its adversarial arms use a slack
cap. That is what the capstone is for, and it is the strongest argument for
pairing the anchor change with W = 12 rather than adopting it at W = 10.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Correctness/completeness review of the report and simulator. Verified against
the committed parquets: the sec 6.6 countable-ceiling table (cap-64 MDP sweep),
sec 6.10 Result 4's depth ceilings, the sec 3.4 uncle-selection table, all
adversary-variant numbers, the rho-boundary row-4 quotes (0.976 at rho=0.91,
4-sigma shortfall at 0.96, max cell 1.0024), and the sec 8.4 capstone table.
Three defects found, all fixed:
1. The collapse event was not reproducible from the committed script. Study D
swept only the default (random) coalition, but the one observed collapse is
a whale cell; the "once in 144 runs" count came from an ad-hoc probe. The
committed sweep now carries the selection axis (96 runs) and reproduces the
event: 1/12 in the whale 50% cell at delta_max = 8, never at 4. All six
fold-related passages now quote the committed sweep, which also retires the
stale "the full dynamics never reach it" wording in the sec 6 arc, the
sec 6.2 intro, row 6 and item 1 -- text that contradicted item 18 since
yesterday's finding.
2. capstone.py's printout could not reproduce the report's sec 8.4 table. The
report's numbers are a per-replicate-tail aggregation (each replicate burns
in against its own early-stop length); the script cut the tail at the ARM's
max epoch, silently dropping any replicate that stopped earlier (7 of 8 in
the adversary arm) and landing one rounding step off on three cells. The
script now aggregates per replicate and prints the SEM; against the existing
parquet it reproduces the table exactly (1.001/0.998, 0.342+-0.009 /
0.343+-0.005, p_ref 1.000/0.990, 8 reps both arms). The report table was
right all along; sec 6.8's p_ref quote (0.989, the per-arm value) is aligned
to 0.990.
3. Small report fixes: slow-beta deflation rounded 0.765 -> "0.77" (now 0.76);
fig13's caption now points at the fig36 ceiling instead of implying free
recovery; row 5 cites the measured slow-beta standing deflation; the
canonical-data paragraph lists the new studies' artifacts; the simulator
README's layout block lists the new tests and scripts.
Adds a unit test for reorg.countable_recovery_from_depths (the one new
function that had none). 236 tests pass; the new-study parquets are copied to
the main checkout's runs/, where every other study's data of record lives.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
