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26 Commits
| Author | SHA1 | Message | Date | |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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99ce8b76d0
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Correct sec 6.12: the parent anchor does move the window floor
My sec 6.12 claim was "costs no honest recovery at any tested delay". That measurement held max_uncles = 4 -- a slack cap, which hides the window entirely, since with four uncle slots the queue drains faster than the window can bind. Re-running the sec 3.4 absorption sweep at U = 1, where the window IS the binding constraint, shows the cost is real: delta=4 knee W 5 -> 6 at W=10: 0.9982 -> 0.9981 (free) delta=8 knee W 6 -> 8 at W=10: 0.9963 -> 0.9930 (-0.0033) delta=16 knee W 20 -> 20 at W=10: 0.9658 -> 0.9326 (-0.0332) The floor rises by one to two block-intervals, exactly what a parent gap running one block-interval longer than the uncle gap predicts -- the prediction I wrote into the plan and then failed to test, because the first study was configured with a cap that masked it. Both statements are true and the report now carries both: at the recommended U = ceil(rho)+1 the anchor is free, and at U = 1 it costs measurably from delta = 8 up. The consequence for sizing is that W should be measured against the parent gap under the new rule -- W = 12 restores the margin W = 10 has today, inside the spec's floor(0.6k) bound, so it needs no further spec change. The delta = 16 row is U-limited rather than window-limited (rho ~ 0.87 against U = 1, below the recommended cap), and is labelled as such. The sec 8.5 spec-delta row and the sec 6 arc bullet carried the same overclaim and are corrected too. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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525d081a3c
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Keep the deployed rule as the default; make the proposal an explicit arm
I had planned to flip uncle_window_anchor's default to "parent" so new configs would measure the proposed design by default. Tried it, and it breaks a documented guarantee: key() appends the anchor only when it is not "uncle", so with "parent" as the default an --old run's key is no longer byte-identical to the pre-redesign key and --old stops bit-reproducing historical runs (sec 9). o.key() == o._base_key() fails outright. Reverted, and on reflection the default was wrong for a second reason anyway. The report's job is to describe the protocol as deployed and to RECOMMEND changes; the default should therefore be the deployed rule, with the proposal as an explicit arm. That is exactly the convention fixed_point already follows (default exact f = the analysis convention, explicit True = spec-faithful). Both reasons are recorded on the field. To make the distinction visible rather than implicit, the spec-as-is studies now pin uncle_window_anchor: uncle explicitly -- spec_point.py, spec_jitter.py and the three spec-point-*.yaml configs answer "what does the DEPLOYED chain do", so they must not drift onto a proposal if a default ever moves. Adds uncle_window_anchor as a sweep axis (SweepConfig field plus _SWEEP_AXES), and configs/absorption-window-anchor.yaml: the sec 3.4 absorption sweep re-run under both anchors at three delays. That study is the one that can move a recommendation -- the W >= 7/f floor was measured against the uncle gap, and the parent gap runs about one block-interval longer, so the floor should sit higher and the margin behind W = 10/f shrink. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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f1433cbbb3
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Anchor the uncle reference window to the parent, not the uncle
The spec bounds an uncle's own slot (0 < sl_A - sl_U <= w_u) but leaves its PARENT unconstrained beyond lying on the referencing chain. So a block minted NOW, built on a chain block from arbitrarily far back, is a legal first-fork uncle: recent by its own slot, ancient by its parent's. Verifying it means deriving the epoch state and ledger root as of that ancient parent, per reference, and those are precisely the inputs the counting rules require -- so the work cannot be amortised. It costs the adversary nothing beyond lottery wins it already has; it just builds them somewhere useless. Measured with a deep_parent coalition. At the deployed operating point a 30% adversary moves the MEDIAN counted reference's reach from 54 slots back to 20,144, and the worst case to 76,778 -- the epoch boundary, ~21 hours of history, ~256x the nominal window. It is not a tail effect. The fix is a SUBSTITUTION, not an additional rule. A block strictly postdates its parent and a referenced uncle strictly precedes its referencer, so sl_A - sl_U < sl_A - sl_parent(U) <= w_u: bounding the parent bounds the uncle for free, and a both-windows variant would be identical to the parent one. Both invariants are pinned in a new test_slot_ordering.py rather than argued -- the user asked to confirm sl_A > sl_U explicitly, and it turns out to be load-bearing for the whole implication, so it is tested at three geometries plus a hand-built counting case. Under the parent anchor the same coalition reaches 292/300/300 slots at delta_max 4/8/16 -- capped by construction. Honest recovery is unaffected: 0.9993 -> 0.9999, 0.9969 -> 0.9986, 0.9791 -> 0.9858, no loss anywhere within one to two SEM, because a latency orphan's parent is recent by construction. One finding that sharpens the case: at delta_max = 16 the HONEST uncle-anchored arm already reaches 315 slots, past its own w_u = 300. Under the current rule w_u is not a bound on validation reach even with no adversary present. It only becomes a state-retention bound once anchored to the parent. Recorded as sec 6.12 with fig38, a new row in the sec 8.5 spec deltas, both new knobs in sec 7, and the study in sec 9. uncle_window_anchor and the deep_parent strategy are appended to the RNG key only when non-default, so no committed run is reseeded. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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abf2c86285
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Make the fork-loss validation stand alone
The results document was written as a reply to a briefing note that will not be
circulated, so it depended on a file no reader would have -- and linked to one
that was never committed, so the link was dead on GitHub regardless.
Rewritten to be self-contained: it now states what the added spec section
claims, what was measured, and the verdict, without reference to the brief.
The six claims and six experiments are stated in its own terms rather than by
the brief's C-numbers and E-numbers, and it carries its own reproduction table
mapping each section to the config or script and run directory behind it.
Renamed fork-loss-validation.md accordingly.
The configs and scripts written for these experiments carried the same
dependency in their header comments ("Handoff E5", "Claim C2"); those now
describe what they measure directly.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Marcin Pawlowski
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18c15d329c
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Documentation sweep: make every finding reachable from the docs, not just the commits
Audited the report against this session's artifacts. All 37 figures are referenced and none is orphaned, sec 8.3 items 1-19 are contiguous, and no internal anchor is dead. Two knobs were measured but undocumented, and the simulator README had drifted behind the code: - sec 7 now documents f_precision alongside fixed_point, with the three measured arms (0.99997 exact / 1.01026 at the spec's 1e3 / 0.99990 at 1e6) rather than just the closed form, and says plainly that the default is the DESIGN choice while a spec-faithful arm needs both flipped. - sec 7 gains deep_orphan_share, with its three regimes: 0.25% honestly, 3.3% at 8 slots of per-recipient jitter, 19-41% under a private chain. It is the quantity p_ref conflates with "eligible but never picked up", which is the distinction that answered item 5. - The simulator README lists the four new scripts and the new configs, describes all three adversary strategies (the selfish one was undocumented there), adds the new fork-structure metrics, and carries a short "modelling the DEPLOYED chain rather than the mechanism" table -- the two defaults that are deliberately not spec-faithful, and when to flip them. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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c202ad9c17
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Add deep_orphan_share: the structural observable behind the first-fork cost
E5 needs to watch whether per-recipient delay variance manufactures the depth->=2 forks the countable rule cannot reach, and no recorded metric measured that. p_ref conflates "unreachable by construction" with "eligible but never picked up" -- the distinction that turned out to be the whole answer to item 5 -- and deep_ref_share is 0 by construction under the countable model, since the proposer's candidate filter drops deep-fork blocks before any reference to one is proposed. deep_orphan_share is the fraction of in-window orphans sitting below the first block of their fork, computed from the depth array fork_stats already builds. Also fixes a splat-unpack in test_selfish_engine that silently re-bound to the wrong quantities when fork_stats grew this field (it read deep_orphan_share as p_ref_honest). fork_stats has now gained a field twice; both call sites unpack by position explicitly. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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e5a89004f2
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Answer the fork-loss handoff: the section's residual is ~17x overstated, and it misses the real bias
Settles E1-E4 and E6 of handoff-fork-loss-validation.md against spec d6fd7648.
E1 costs nothing and reframes everything: analysis-block-times-blend-network.md
sets blending_delay as a FIXED per-hop dwell (the 3d+5 max-delay arithmetic
gives 14 s at d=3 and 11 s at d=2, matching its prose), not a mean or a bound.
The simulator's Uniform(0, delta_max) matches a 2 s dwell in the mean at
delta_max = 4, so D_vis = 8 s and rho = 0.27 -- inside the committed 40-replicate
paired design band, which answers C1-C3 from data of record.
C1 refuted: every U>=1 cell sits at 0.9985-0.9997, not 0.986. C2's mechanism is
right but its size is ~17x over: the paired first-fork cost is 0.08 pp pooled
(95% CI [0.03, 0.13], t = 3.08), resolved only because the arms share streams --
the U=0 negative control is exactly 0.00000 +- 0.00000. C3 is refuted in the
UNFAVOURABLE direction: the no-uncle loss is 33% at N=1000 and 34.6% at N=5000
(42% / 49.5% at delta_max = 8), so the section understates what uncles buy by
about half. C4 stands with ~7x margin (U=3 still recovers at rho = 1.87). C5 is
right in effect, wrong in wording -- the knee is at W_abs ~ 5, so the spec's 10
is ~2x above it, which is "has margin", not "never binds".
C6 is the section's real omission. The deployed estimator quantises the target
rate at PRECISION = 1e3, and measured in the full dynamics that reads
1.01026 +- 0.00056 against a closed form of 1.0101 -- a 1.0% bias ~13x the
first-fork cost the section is concerned with, opposite in sign, removed by a
one-constant change. It could not be measured before because PRECISION was a
module constant pinned at the RECOMMENDED 1e6; f_precision is now a config
field, appended to the RNG key only when non-default so no committed run moves.
Also from the guide: uncle_window_slots now floors rather than rounds, matching
w_u := floor(W/f) (identical at the defaults; matters only for the W and f
sweeps).
Reviewed sec 4.3's argument as sec 6 asks, and it holds -- inclusion stayed soft
("may reference fewer uncles than it could ... and its block remains valid"), so
row 10, the anti-mandate argument and the suppress adversary are all unaffected;
only the CONTENT of a reference became validity-gated. One correction: the
"no incentive to deviate" clause does still exist, so sec 8.5's implication (ii)
is live, not moot.
E5 -- the jitter diagnostic, and the only experiment that could invalidate the
report rather than the section -- is not run and is flagged as such.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Marcin Pawlowski
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f342fd4f45
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Score the deflation frontier on absolute pay, not revenue share
Verification of my own item-16 result, which I had flagged as resting on a step I had not checked: "break-even" was measured as revenue SHARE >= stake share, and share-to-pay equivalence rests on sec 6.6's issuance argument. It does not hold as stated. A revenue share is measured against the canonical block rate, but pay is set by the estimator. TSI drives COUNTED density -- canonical plus recovered uncles -- to f per slot, so a run yields f/D-hat block-finding events per slot and a deflating attack makes the lottery easier for everyone. Pay per slot is adv_rate * f / D-hat against an honest miner's alpha * f, so the correction on the share ratio is density/D-hat, which is below 1 whenever any uncle is recovered. Scoring on share credits the attacker with pay it never receives. The headline survives; one row does not. At alpha = 0.4 the true break-even point deflates to 0.649 rather than 0.642 (against the revenue-optimal 0.811), so 16 points of free deflation instead of 17. But at alpha = 0.36 the policy I reported as paying 1.033x stake actually pays 0.95x, and NO policy in the sweep both pays and deflates there -- that row is withdrawn. The exposure therefore opens near alpha ~ 0.37-0.38, above the 1/3 selfish threshold, not at it. That is a better result for the protocol than the one I published yesterday, which is the direction these corrections usually do not go. pay_vs_honest is now computed in deflation_frontier() and is the criterion best_profitable() selects on, so the claim is reproducible rather than resting on a hand check. The conversion neglects the multi-winner factor c(f) ~ 1.017 between events and occupied slots (sec 2.1), noted inline and small against a 16-point effect. Downstream citations in sec 1, sec 8.2 and item 16 updated. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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8cc682aa49
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Item 16: the revenue-optimal adversary is not the estimator's worst case
Both eta ceilings in sec 6.6 come from adversaries optimising something else (revenue, reorg depth), so they bound eta from above without bounding the damage from below. Optimising the estimate directly needs no ratio transform: each transition consumes exactly one block-finding event, so minimising D-hat = (canonical + p_ref * countable uncles)/events is a plain average-reward MDP over the transition table that already carries the orphan counts. One value-iteration pass, no bisection. Unconstrained, the answer degenerates -- and usefully. The optimum is pure abstention: publish nothing, adopt when overtaken, D-hat = 1 - alpha exactly, revenue zero. That is sec 6.4's withholding, which the report already shows is CORRECT measurement rather than mis-measurement, so the unconstrained objective asks the wrong question. The constrained one bites. Sweeping lam * (adversary blocks) - (contribution to D-hat) enumerates policies; the line of interest is where revenue SHARE reaches alpha, i.e. where attacking costs nothing versus mining honestly. At alpha=0.4 such a policy drives D-hat to 0.642 where the revenue-maximiser reaches 0.811 -- 17 points of extra deflation bought with the selfish premium alone. At 0.36 and 0.45 the gaps are 0.082 and 0.103. Below the 1/3 threshold nothing profitable deflates, so the exposure starts exactly where selfish mining does. This revises two claims that were about revenue but read as though they were about the adversary in general: sec 6.7's "the adversary frontier is exactly optimal selfish mining; no compounding lever remains" and sec 8.2's echo of it. Both now say the PROFIT frontier is bounded and the estimator frontier is not the same policy. Note the sweep parameter is deliberately non-monotone in revenue -- selfish mining takes a bigger share of a smaller pie, so raw block rate is maximised by honesty and large lam returns there; it enumerates policies rather than tracing a path. Also closes a fairness loop these findings opened. Sec 6.7(1) credits uncle rewards with compensating orphaned honest producers, computed on the SM1 race where every orphan is a first-fork block. Under a private chain 20-40% of the honest blocks destroyed are unreferenceable by construction, so those producers are uncompensatable at ANY w_u -- not underpaid because p_ref is low, but unreachable because no valid block may name them. The fairness guarantee inherits the same first-fork ceiling as the density repair. Logged as item 19, flagged as a protocol-design question rather than something a schedule fixes. _solve_mdp is refactored into _solve_reward/_greedy_policy/_stationary/ _policy_rates so both objectives share one implementation; optimal_policy_stats reproduces its committed figures exactly (eta 0.4413, D-hat 0.9447/0.8111 at alpha=0.4). 251 tests pass. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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5a8cc4437a
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Item 5 resolved: the uncle cap is not the binding constraint under a private chain
With the SM1 adversary in the engine, the question item 5 could not ask is now a measurement. It asked whether the honest-load cap needs margin when the attack inflates orphaning, on the theory that owed uncles would defer past W. They do not. Sweeping U x W x alpha against the attack (512 runs, N=1000, k=256, 8 reps): at the design point and alpha = 0.3, D-hat/D reads 0.729/0.755/0.738/0.758 for U = 1/2/3/4 -- flat within noise -- and no attacked cell reaches the 0.98 bar at any cap or either window. The honest baseline in the same sweep reproduces sec 3.4 exactly (U=1 clears at delta=8; delta=16 needs U=2 at W=10 or W=20 at U=1), which is a useful check that the engine adversary has not disturbed the honest regime. Splitting the honest orphans by WHY they went unreferenced explains it. Neither existing metric separates the two causes -- p_ref mixes them, and deep_ref_share is 0 by construction here because the proposer's candidate filter drops deep-fork blocks before any reference to one is proposed -- so the script walks the tree. Countable share (first block of its fork): 97% honest, 76-81% at alpha=0.2, 59-72% at alpha=0.3. Referenced OF those: 90-93% honest, 84-93% and 80-88% under attack. The queue drains at essentially the honest rate whatever the cap; what collapses is eligibility. An override discards a CHAIN and only its first block has a parent on the surviving chain, so 20-40% of the honest work destroyed is unreferenceable by construction. U governs drain capacity for candidates that exist; it cannot manufacture eligibility. So U = ceil(rho) + 1 stands unchanged and needs no adversarial margin -- and the one place the cap does matter is the honest-load reason it was sized for (U=1 -> 2 lifts the referenced-of-countable rate from 84% to 93% at alpha = 0.2, then U=4 adds nothing). This is the fig36 first-fork ceiling reached from an independent direction: a per-node network simulation with real delays and a real queue, versus a stationary MDP. Two models sharing no code, agreeing on direction and rough size, is the strongest available evidence that the ceiling is a property of the counting rule rather than of either model. Recorded in sec 6.6 and sec 6.8, with the sec 6.8 structural argument corrected: it holds for orphans that are referenceable, but a private chain buries most of them out of reach. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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3708d03e22
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Private-chain (SM1) adversary in the per-node engine
Sec 6.8 recorded that "the per-node engine has no private-chain strategy", which is why every selfish result came from the global race model with uncle recovery as a free knob eta -- and why open item 5 (does the uncle cap need margin under attack-inflated orphaning?) could not be sized: a knob has no queue to overflow. adversary_strategy="selfish" adds it. The coalition mines one shared private chain and releases under the classic SM1 rules in (a, h) form: adopt when the public chain wins, match at equal length, override at a one-block lead, else wait. Only VISIBILITY is modelled -- the coalition's mining needs no special case, because a member's fork choice already builds on the private tip whenever it leads (that tip has the greatest height among blocks the member can see) and falls back to the public chain exactly when the public chain overtakes, which is the adopt branch. So the private chain forms, extends and is abandoned emergently, and the code that had to be written is the arrival matrix. Design notes worth keeping: - Private blocks reuse the sentinel `withhold` already had (never-arrives), so the existing exclusions from canonical-tip selection apply unchanged; release flips it back and gossips DIRECTLY from the producer, bypassing Blend, since an adversary has no privacy budget to respect and wants the race won. - A private chain breaks the windowed horizon's premise (a hidden block is old enough to look fully-propagated while no honest node has it, and it becomes visible LATER, which the one-way frontier pointer cannot revisit), so selfish forces the exact full scan and full matrix. - Blocks still hidden at epoch end are abandoned and hidden from the coalition too, or the canonical-tip search would crown a chain no honest node saw. Validated against Eyal-Sirer at sub-slot latency: revenue share 0.0356 vs an exact 0.0356 at alpha = 0.1, and above the closed form at higher alpha by just the margin the alpha_eff fork-amplification correction predicts (0.498 vs 0.484 at alpha = 0.4, with fork rate 0.38). Adds p_ref_honest: the reference rate over orphans produced OUTSIDE the coalition. Under a private-chain attack this diverges sharply from p_ref, and only the honest one measures the repair the report credits to uncle counting -- an attacker's own discarded blocks are its loss to bear. test_fork unpacks fork_stats positionally, so its three call sites take the new fifth value. 247 tests pass. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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ef82ed614d
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Review pass: reproduce every number from its data of record, fix what did not
Correctness/completeness review of the report and simulator. Verified against the committed parquets: the sec 6.6 countable-ceiling table (cap-64 MDP sweep), sec 6.10 Result 4's depth ceilings, the sec 3.4 uncle-selection table, all adversary-variant numbers, the rho-boundary row-4 quotes (0.976 at rho=0.91, 4-sigma shortfall at 0.96, max cell 1.0024), and the sec 8.4 capstone table. Three defects found, all fixed: 1. The collapse event was not reproducible from the committed script. Study D swept only the default (random) coalition, but the one observed collapse is a whale cell; the "once in 144 runs" count came from an ad-hoc probe. The committed sweep now carries the selection axis (96 runs) and reproduces the event: 1/12 in the whale 50% cell at delta_max = 8, never at 4. All six fold-related passages now quote the committed sweep, which also retires the stale "the full dynamics never reach it" wording in the sec 6 arc, the sec 6.2 intro, row 6 and item 1 -- text that contradicted item 18 since yesterday's finding. 2. capstone.py's printout could not reproduce the report's sec 8.4 table. The report's numbers are a per-replicate-tail aggregation (each replicate burns in against its own early-stop length); the script cut the tail at the ARM's max epoch, silently dropping any replicate that stopped earlier (7 of 8 in the adversary arm) and landing one rounding step off on three cells. The script now aggregates per replicate and prints the SEM; against the existing parquet it reproduces the table exactly (1.001/0.998, 0.342+-0.009 / 0.343+-0.005, p_ref 1.000/0.990, 8 reps both arms). The report table was right all along; sec 6.8's p_ref quote (0.989, the per-arm value) is aligned to 0.990. 3. Small report fixes: slow-beta deflation rounded 0.765 -> "0.77" (now 0.76); fig13's caption now points at the fig36 ceiling instead of implying free recovery; row 5 cites the measured slow-beta standing deflation; the canonical-data paragraph lists the new studies' artifacts; the simulator README's layout block lists the new tests and scripts. Adds a unit test for reorg.countable_recovery_from_depths (the one new function that had none). 236 tests pass; the new-study parquets are copied to the main checkout's runs/, where every other study's data of record lives. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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feafe8ec92
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Close the sec 6.5 scope variants; static withholding can reach the fold
Whale coalitions, jitter > 0 and very slow beta were the residual "untested adversary variants" of open item 11. None moves a conclusion: - Concentration does not change the deflation (suppression D-hat within noise at every stake), and a whale coalition reproduces the sec 6.4 withholding law D-hat -> (1-beta_adv) more cleanly than a random one: 0.9005/0.6997/0.5010 against a predicted 0.9/0.7/0.5. The "lumpier share statistic" worry points the other way, and for a reason that is about coalition CONSTRUCTION rather than concentration: a random coalition grows until its stake first reaches the target, so the last node added overshoots by its own size -- a whale, under a Pareto tail. Realised block share at a nominal beta_adv = 0.1 is 0.137 +- 0.108. Logged as item 17: the beta_adv axis is a nominal target. - jitter up to 1 slot changes nothing under attack (notch 0.390 -> 0.410, attacker share flat, range_ratio identically 0), as sec 6.1 found honestly. - Slow beta shrinks the notch (0.415 -> 0.080 for beta 1 -> 0.1) at flat attacker take, but sinks the MEAN estimate to 0.765 at beta = 0.05: the estimator can no longer track back up during the honest half of the cycle. Slowing beta buys the defender nothing on either axis. Unplanned: study A blew past the memory guard, which turned out to be the sec 6.2 fold being reached. The mechanism is sec 6.2's own -- rho_eff = rho/r, and withholding deflates r by design, so a 50 % coalition doubles the load onto rho_eff ~ 1.1 at the design point. Swept directly, the estimate collapses once in 144 runs at delta_max = 8 (a concentrated 50 % coalition) and never at delta_max = 4. That retires "not an observed dynamical trap" but is one event, so the claim is stated as a rare tail and the rate is logged unmeasured as item 18. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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88f31340ad
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Uncle selection: the spec fixes oldest-first, so measure deviation from it
Open item 11 listed "a random (rather than oldest-first) uncle-selection draw" as an untested spec sensitivity. The spec does not leave it open: Uncle Selection in cryptarchia-v1-protocol.md has the proposer take the oldest candidates first, deterministically, because an uncle expires w_u slots after its own slot. That is exactly what every result in the report already uses, so the item is a conformance match, not a gap -- and the simulator comment calling uncle_random_p "the spec's unbiased coin" cites text the spec no longer has. What is genuinely open is deviation FROM that rule: selection is proposer-local and the uncles field is never validated. configs/uncle-selection.yaml measures the cost. A proposer that includes each candidate on a fair coin instead loses up to 0.10 in D-hat/D, and 0.063 at the recommended W = 10 once rho ~ 1 (0.902 vs 0.965, t = -8.6). At the design point the margin survives but is spent: 0.980 vs 0.997 against a 0.98 bar. The loss does not close as W grows, because a coin wastes opportunities rather than queue capacity and a well-sized window is precisely what keeps the queue short enough for that to bite. This matters for the sec 8.5 reward recommendation: the spec argues a proposer has no incentive to deviate BECAUSE uncles grant no reward, and paying them removes that argument. Also adds adversary_selection=whale (the largest holders at matched stake, for the untested concentration case). The marker is appended to key() only when non-default so every historical run's seed stays byte-identical, guarded by a test alongside the paired_streams one. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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0510b20684
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Countable recovery under a selfish adversary: SM1 hides the first-fork cost
The countable model can reference only the first block of a fork, so a discarded chain of h honest blocks yields one countable uncle, not h. Sec 6.6 reads the estimator repair off a free knob eta and quotes it at eta = 1 -- attainable under SM1, which acts the moment the honest branch reaches length 1 and so never buries a second block. The optimal SSZ policy waits and does bury them, and there the deployed counting rules cap eta at 0.44 (alpha = 0.4, gamma = 0), landing D-hat at 0.81 rather than the 0.94 an unrestricted count gives -- and the ceiling degrades with alpha while the unrestricted value improves. So SM1 is a faithful proxy for selfish-mining revenue (0.484 vs 0.489) but not for TSI's estimator damage. selfish_mdp: carry per-branch orphan counts on the transition table so the accounting cannot drift from the race logic; optimal_policy_stats solves the policy's stationary distribution for per-event canonical/orphan rates. The per-event rates sum to 1 (every block is canonical or orphaned), which the tests assert as an independent check on the whole derivation. reorg: the same ceiling for the depth-maximising adversary -- 0.52 at alpha = 0.30 with the measured honest fork rate -- reached from the other direction. Neither adversary optimises deflation directly, so both ceilings are upper bounds on eta; that gap is logged as open item 16. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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06364797a8
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Pair the overload grid; the first-fork cost is resolved at every load
§3.2 rested on 5 unpaired replicates while §3.2a used a paired design. Re-running the delta_max 4/8/16/32 grid with common random numbers and 20 replicates (configs/countable-vs-old-paired.yaml) changes the answer at the design end. The cost is resolved at EVERY delay and grows monotonically with load: delta_max=4 (rho 0.36) -0.0013 t= 4.0 (unpaired: not resolved) delta_max=8 (rho 0.56) -0.0034 t= 9.8 (unpaired: not resolved) delta_max=16 (rho 0.96) -0.0102 t=17.5 delta_max=32 (rho 1.76) -0.0228 t=22.4 So §3.2's claim that "at the operating loads (rho < 1) no difference between the models is detectable at all" was an artefact of the weak design, not a property of the system. There is a difference; it is just small — 0.13% and 0.34% at the two sub-unit loads. The new delta_max=4 figure (-0.0013 at 20 reps) independently reproduces §3.2a's (-0.0011 at 40 reps) from a separate sweep. 11 of 12 U>=1 cells resolve individually; max t = 29.0 against a Bonferroni threshold of 2.87 for twelve tests. The U=0 control is exact: 80/80 replicate pairs differ by 0.0. New finding at U=1 under overload: the sign FLIPS and the countable rule wins, +0.0127 (t = 7.6), positive in 19 of 20 pairs. Both models have collapsed at rho ~ 1.76 with a single uncle slot, but when capacity is the binding constraint the countable rule's occupied-slot exclusion means its one reference always recovers a NEW slot, while the unrestricted rule dedups by block id and can spend that reference on an orphan whose slot is already counted. Measured recovery agrees: q_u = 0.591 countable vs 0.579 unrestricted. The slot-vs-block distinction of §2.1 is worth most exactly where references are scarcest. Code: paired_gaps and pooled_by_delay move from scripts/plot_fine_delay into figures_pernode so both plot scripts share one implementation; plot_countable_vs_old now detects paired runs and uses the per-replicate difference, falling back to the unpaired two-sample test otherwise. Two hardcoded reporting values fixed — the Bonferroni threshold was pinned to 2.935 and printed nan for any grid that was not 15 cells, and a per-cell comparison line had a hardcoded /15 denominator; both now derive from the grid actually run. Figures 30-32 regenerated from the paired grid. Tests: 214 passed. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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c8a23fd1df
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Report becomes the directory README; rebuild the contents block
The report is now reports/tsi/README.md, so browsing to reports/tsi/ lands on the report itself rather than on an index that points at it. The old index carried nothing the report lacked except the note that report-figures/ holds the figures of record (the simulator folder does not commit its own), which is folded into §9; its section table is superseded by the report's own contents block. The "[Index]" self-link in the header is replaced by the simulator link the index used to carry. The contents block was inconsistent: §2 listed subsection titles, §3 and §6 listed bare numbers with no titles at all, and the appendices were crammed onto one line while their subsections went unlisted. Rebuilt from the document's actual headings so every entry has a real title, top-level entries carry a one-line gloss, and subsections sit indented under their parent. It now covers all 47 anchors, including B.1-B.4 and C.1-C.2 which were previously absent. scripts/build_html.py follows the rename (DOCS is a single document) and still renders clean: 47 anchors, 0 broken internal links, 0 unrewritten .md links, 37 images. Also adds configs/countable-vs-old-paired.yaml — the paired, 20-replicate version of the overload grid. §3.2a now rests on a paired design while §3.2 still rests on 5 unpaired replicates, which is why its U=1 cells at delta_max 16 and 32 sit unresolved at t ~ 0.5 against a replicate sd of 0.15. That sweep is running; the report is not yet updated from it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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4baccd8d4b
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Paired design: resolve the design band with common random numbers
The unpaired comparison could not answer the question it was asked. The two uncle models draw independent RNG streams -- uncle_model is in the config key, which is what makes --old bit-reproduce earlier runs -- so the arms differed in stake draw, peering graph and every lottery outcome, each comparison paid the between-run variance twice, and the per-cell floor (+-0.0015) sat an order of magnitude above the effect. Only delta_max = 5 resolved, and only after pooling. Adds `paired_streams`: the RNG root is derived from the model- independent part of the key, so a countable cell and its --old twin get the SAME stake, graph and lottery draws and the uncle rule is the only difference. Each replicate is then a matched pair and the shared variance cancels. Trajectories still diverge after epoch 0 through the genuine feedback (a different counted density changes the next epoch's difficulty), which is the signal. The flag is deliberately NOT in key(): it selects which key the seed is derived from, so including it would perturb every historical seed. Re-verified that --old still bit-reproduces the committed 2026-07-27 rho-boundary parquet, max |delta| = 0. Results (configs/fine-delay-paired.yaml, 40 replicates per arm): - Negative control becomes an IDENTITY check. With U = 0 no reference is taken, so shared streams must give bit-identical trajectories. All 200 replicate pairs differ by exactly 0.0. Unpaired, the same control only had to agree within +-0.025 and drifted by 0.016. - Per-cell SE shrinks by a median 1.6x (1.2-2.1x); widest 95% CI goes +-0.0015 -> +-0.0010. 5/15 cells resolve at |t| >= 2 (0.75 expected by chance); the largest, U=2 at delta_max=4, is t = 4.32 and clears Bonferroni for 15 tests. - The cost is a STEP, not the ramp the unpaired data suggested: delta_max 1-3 unresolved (t = 1.1, 1.8, 1.4), then delta_max 4 AND 5 both resolve at -0.0011 (t = 4.7) and -0.0009 (t = 3.7). Whole-band pooled -0.00060 +- 0.00021, t = 5.7 -- where the unpaired estimate of the same quantity (t = 2.8) had failed correction. So the first-fork restriction costs nothing measurable up to delta_max = 3 and about 0.1% at 4-5 -- an order of magnitude below the +-0.9% per-epoch sampling noise. Two bugs found while building this, both of which would have silently produced a wrong answer: - paired_streams was missing from metrics._CONFIG_FIELDS, so it never reached the parquet; plot_fine_delay.py falls back to the unpaired test when it cannot confirm pairing, so the sweep would have completed and quietly reported the old result. Caught before the run finished; the sweep was restarted and a test now pins the field. - The U=0 control check reported FAILS on a PERFECT control: paired, the gap is exactly 0 so its SE is 0 and t is 0/0. It now checks the gap itself when the streams are shared, and falls back to the t-test only when there is real spread. §3.2a is rewritten around the paired measurement; the unpaired sweep is retained in §9 as the power comparison that motivated it. Figures 34-35 regenerated, with the control annotation and provenance reflecting the design actually used. Tests: 214 passed (was 209). ruff clean. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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c5059c2fc8
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Consolidate the TSI report into one document
The four-part split existed because the single report had grown dense and heavily cross-referenced; splitting traded that for a different cost, which the merged read makes visible. Section numbers (§1–§9, Appendices A–C) were already the stable identifiers, so the parts were a packaging choice, not a structural one. reports/tsi/tsi-report.md is now the whole report. Parts are interleaved back into section order — §1, §2–§5, §6, §7–§8, §9 + appendices — which is NOT concatenation order: Part 1 carried §1, §7 and §8, so appending files in sequence would have put §7–§8 ahead of §2. Every cross-file link collapses to an internal anchor; all 47 anchors resolve, all 37 figure embeds resolve, and no line of prose was lost (verified by diffing normalised content lines with link targets stripped — 0 lost, additions are the new header and table of contents). Coherence fixes the merge exposed, all artefacts of the split: - The roadmap paragraph described "four parts (see the index)" and is now a section-order roadmap, with its circular self-link to §1 dropped. - §7's figure-location note pointed readers at "the other parts". It now names the actual sections, and it was also WRONG about three figures: fig17/fig18/fig21 are in Appendix C and figB1/figB2 in Appendix B, not §9. It had also never been updated for fig30–fig35. - §9's "throughout this part" is now "throughout". README.md becomes a proper index — a section table pointing into the one document — rather than a list of four files. scripts/split_report.py is deleted: a one-time migration that produced the split, now both obsolete and pointing the wrong way. scripts/build_html.py was already broken before this change — it still read the report from tsi-sim-pernode/, where the files stopped living when they moved to reports/tsi/. Retargeted at reports/tsi/ and the single document; verified end-to-end (0 broken internal anchors, 0 unrewritten .md links, 37 images in the rendered HTML). Its output is now gitignored, as its docstring always claimed it was. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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15e876e90a
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Correctness pass: derive rho in code, and the absolute vs-1.0 test
Two findings from re-reviewing the fine-delay section. 1. The rho values I put in s3.2a were wrong. The report derives rho = f*D_vis with D_vis = hops*delta_max/2 + (hops+1)*ell_mean from a MEASURED ell_mean (1.211 slots at N=1000/degree=6), not from the link_latency_mean parameter (0.5). Hand-substituting a guessed 1.5 inflated every value by ~0.04: the band is rho 0.21-0.41, not 0.25-0.45. To stop that recurring, graph_ell_mean moves out of rho_boundary_analysis.py into figures_pernode.py, joined by a new rho_for() that both scripts and any future quotation go through; plot_fine_delay.py now prints the derived rho per delay. This also exposed an inconsistency in the existing s3.2 table, which rounded delta_max=4 to "rho ~ 0.4" while s3.2a called the same cell 0.36 and prose elsewhere already used 0.56 for delta_max=8. The s3.2 column now carries the derived values (0.36/0.56/0.96/1.76). 2. Testing each cell against the exact target 1.0 -- the same question the gap test asks, without reference to the other model -- corroborates the first-fork onset independently. Unrestricted: 1/15 cells below 1 (t=-2.09, chance). Countable: 4/15, and not scattered -- delta_max=4 at U=1, and ALL THREE caps at delta_max=5 (-0.0012 to -0.0019, t=-2.5..-3.7). A shortfall appearing at every cap at once, only at the top of the band, only under the restricted model, is the first-fork cost seen absolutely. That makes "one uncle slot is sufficient -- not approximately, exactly" too strong as I had written it. s3.2a now states the residual (0.1-0.2% at the top of the band, zero below delta_max=3), reconciles it with the s1 headline, and notes that since all three caps show the same shortfall the residual is not a capacity limit. The bound quoted in s1 moves from "below 0.15%" to "<= 0.2%". Also adds the new run directories to s9's canonical list, which covered every other study but not these. Tests: 209 passed. ruff clean. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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ac6a309e58
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Review fixes + high-precision design-band delay study
Acts on a correctness/completeness review of the countable uncle model and its report material. Correctness fixes in the report: - s3.4 quoted 0.998 for W_abs=10 at the 8s budget; the run says 0.9963. - s1 claimed both models >= 0.996 at U >= 1; countable U=2 delta=8 is 0.9955. Corrected to >= 0.995. - The s3.2 table presented two cells (U=1 at delta 16 and 32) as model differences. They are not resolvable: t = 0.46 and 0.47 over 5 replicates. The table now carries +-SEM and a t per cell. - s3.4 claimed the ~7-block-interval floor "carries over unchanged". Accuracy is still climbing past W=7 at every delay (8s: 0.989 -> 0.996), so the claim is dropped. The 32s curve is non-monotonic with replicate SD up to 0.22 and is now flagged as noise, not a trend. - 1-r was attributed to the first-fork restriction alone; it is the combined first-fork and capacity loss, which this measurement cannot separate. Hedged to match fig32's own axis label. Completeness: the U=0 negative control was swept but never reported. With no uncles the two models are identical by construction, yet they differ by -0.23 at delta_max=32 (t=2.1) because they draw independent RNG streams. That is the noise floor the rest of the grid must clear, and it is now in s3.2, s9, fig30 and the config header. New study (configs/fine-delay.yaml, scripts/plot_fine_delay.py, s3.2a, fig34/fig35): the design band delta_max 1-5 at 40 replicates, both models. Findings: every U >= 1 cell of both models lands in 0.998-1.001, flat in delay, while U=0 decays 0.810 -> 0.640. No individual cell resolves a model difference (widest 95% CI +-0.15pp; max t=2.59 vs Bonferroni 2.94 over 15 cells). Pooled across uncle caps the first-fork cost is monotone in delay and separates from zero only at delta_max=5 (-0.0014 +- 0.0007, t=3.7) -- below 0.15% everywhere in the band, against +-0.9% per-epoch sampling noise. Code: - deep_ref_share is identically 0 on every real countable run: for a chain block B the producer's chain below B is the counting chain below B, so the counting-side parent-on-chain re-check cannot reject what selection emitted. It is a drift alarm, not a rate. Documented as such in measure.py, the plot docstring and the config header, and pinned by a new end-to-end test. - Removed annotate_uncles: a second countable implementation that production never called, while carrying most of the selection test coverage. Tests now drive select_uncles_at_production through an annotate_via_production replay helper -- same assertions, live path. - Added tests for the two previously uncovered branches of the live selection: the pmin/below chain walk that resolves parent-on-chain for candidates whose parent sits below the window, and the occupied-slot exclusion built from the chain walk. - theory.q_effective and theory.window_miss_prob were unused and untested. Now used (the prediction figure reconstructs q_u through the identity the report quotes) and tested. The window_miss_prob test records that its "~ e^-W" docstring is the f->0 limit: the true decay is e^-1.017W at f=1/30, 16% off by W=10. - Shared sem()/recovery_rate() moved into figures_pernode.py; fig30 and fig33 regenerated with SEM error bars and the U=0 control curve. - Fixed the pre-existing E501 in bootstrap_dynamics.py; ruff clean. Report prose reworked to read standalone: the countable model is described as the rules under analysis and the former model as a labelled "unrestricted" comparison baseline, with no dated banners and no round-to-round narration. Tests: 209 passed (was 202). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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bd2ac7b7be
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Countable uncle model: spec counting rules, sweeps, figures
Implement the countable uncle model from the Cryptarchia spec's counting-only reference rules, and make it the simulator default. Counting rules (uncles.py, measure.py): - Only the first block of a fork (parent on the producer's chain) is referenceable and countable, which makes every reference verifiable from chain data alone. - The reference window is derived from a window-absorption parameter, w_u = W_abs/f slots (W_abs in expected block-intervals, default 10, bounded W_abs <= 0.6*k), replacing the free-standing uncle_window. - Selection skips slots already occupied on the producer's chain and takes at most one uncle per slot. - The measurement pass re-checks every rule per reference and tallies rejections as deep_ref_share. The pre-redesign model is preserved behind --old on tsi-sweep and tsi-verify. Its RNG key is byte-identical to the pre-uncle_model key, so --old bit-reproduces the historical runs. Supporting changes: uncle_model and window_absorption config surface with validation (config.py, constants.py); accuracy closed form over the effective q_u (theory.py); plumbing through tsi.py, epoch.py, sweep.py, blocktree.py, metrics.py, verify.py, figures_pernode.py. Studies and figures: - configs/countable-vs-old.yaml -- delay x U grid, run under both models on the same grid. - configs/absorption-window.yaml -- accuracy vs W_abs at U=1. - scripts/plot_countable_vs_old.py renders fig30-fig33 into reports/tsi/report-figures/. Tests: tests/test_countable_counting.py (7 cases) covering first-fork eligibility, derived-window bounds, occupied-slot exclusion, and per-reference re-checking; extensions to test_uncles.py, test_config.py, test_slot_counting.py. Full fast suite: 202 passed. Also adds CLAUDE.md (graphify project instructions) and ignores editor/local-agent state plus the vendored Equi-X benchmark clone. The reports/tsi/ prose describing this model is held back for a separate editorial pass. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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cb58cd7ead
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Round-4 TSI report review: apply findings, editorial pass, code + figure fixes
Applied the reconstructed round-4 review to the TSI parameter-selection report set (reports/tsi) and executed the follow-ups. Report (reports/tsi): - Applied the must+should findings across README + parts 1-4: cross-part numeric corrections, figure-caption fixes, spec reconciliation, and cross-file companions (hops-degradation and notch/reward numbers, tip-agreement ordering, density-window timing, VRF -> ZK Proof-of-Leadership, w_u window/reward gloss). - Editorial pass for timeless voice (no "now adopted / merged / coin" narration) and a gentle spec-safety framing (recommendations are thresholds; the protocol's MAX_UNCLES=4 sits safely above them). - Added the fork-rate-vs-scale table (6.10), defined "grinding gain", promoted the clock-skew study to its own paragraph, added the correlated-latency caveat, and moved fig27/fig28 beside their discussion. - Documented the Blend cascade in 2: hops propagate over the shared gossip graph (not direct links), the final broadcast comes from the last relay, relays are blind forwarders. Simulator (tools/simulators/tsi/tsi-sim-pernode): - Docstring/dead-code fixes: theory.block_count_ceiling (legacy framing), measure, reorg (catch-up reading), metrics (removed two dead helpers), config (fixed_point 10^-6; clock_skew_max/lottery_chunks documented inert), stake_vs_delay. - Generator correctness + regenerated figures: figures_pernode.CONFIG_COLS now exhaustive (f no longer pooled); rho_boundary_analysis SEM across replicates + hollow floored markers + de-hardcoded ell_mean (measured from the run's graph); appendix_fluct per-N sigma + ~18x title (figB2); bootstrap_dynamics driving estimate so fig1 epoch-0 matches genesis. - pytest: 186 passed; report links 528/0 dangling. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Marcin Pawlowski
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24da2fc8b3
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Importing tsi-sim v3 | ||
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Marcin Pawlowski
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e86bb0cb6c
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Importing tsi-sim v2 | ||
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Marcin Pawlowski
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97a4e8cc30
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Importing tsi-sim v1 |