{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Token Valuation Script for Decentralized Cloud Services \n",
    "`A script for analyzing future token utility value`\n",
    "\n",
    "This builds on the work of:\n",
    "- https://medium.com/@cburniske/cryptoasset-valuations-ac83479ffca7\n",
    "- https://hunter.mirror.xyz/_04DQ0AHbWCZ1tQxokM1b4bgDEpQ2paukOzEI_w_Ktk\n",
    "- https://sites.cs.ucsb.edu/~suri/psdir/incentives.pdf\n",
    "\n",
    "Future Work:\n",
    "- Extend usage of this tool to help analyze and model the intersection of incentives and decentralized cloud service system performance to impact better data distribution and minimize economic vulnerability."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from matplotlib import pyplot as plt\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "from ipywidgets import HBox, VBox, widgets, interactive\n",
    "from IPython.display import display, clear_output\n",
    "import math\n",
    "import decimal\n",
    "from datetime import datetime\n",
    "%matplotlib inline\n",
    "\n",
    "# Widget Definitions\n",
    "\n",
    "ssi0label = widgets.Label(value = \"ssi0 | Max Supply\")\n",
    "ssi0text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 66000000,\n",
    "    description = 'ssi0 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "ssi0 = widgets.IntSlider(\n",
    "    value=66000000,\n",
    "    min=10000000,\n",
    "    max=10000000000,\n",
    "    step=1,\n",
    "    description='ssi0:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='d'\n",
    ")\n",
    "ssi0link = widgets.jslink((ssi0text, 'value'), (ssi0, 'value'))\n",
    "ssi1label = widgets.Label(value = \"ssi1 | Float\")\n",
    "ssi1text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 33394701,\n",
    "    description = 'ssi1 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "ssi1 = widgets.IntSlider(\n",
    "    value=33394701,\n",
    "    min=10000000,\n",
    "    max=10000000000,\n",
    "    step=1000000,\n",
    "    description='ssi1:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='d'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "ssi1link = widgets.jslink((ssi1text, 'value'), (ssi1, 'value'))\n",
    "ssi2label = widgets.Label(value = \"ssi2 | Float CAGR\")\n",
    "ssi2text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 0.2201662,\n",
    "    description = 'ssi2 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "ssi2 = widgets.FloatSlider(\n",
    "    value=0.2201662,\n",
    "    min=0,\n",
    "    max=1,\n",
    "    step=0.001,\n",
    "    description='ssi2:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='.4f'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "ssi2link = widgets.jslink((ssi2text, 'value'), (ssi2, 'value'))\n",
    "ssi3label = widgets.Label(value = \"ssi3 | Year Max Supply in Possible Float\")\n",
    "ssi3text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 2026,\n",
    "    description = 'ssi3 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "ssi3 = widgets.IntSlider(\n",
    "    value=2026,\n",
    "    min=2000,\n",
    "    max=2100,\n",
    "    step=1,\n",
    "    description='ssi3:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='d'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "ssi3link = widgets.jslink((ssi3text, 'value'), (ssi3, 'value'))\n",
    "ssi4label = widgets.Label(value = \"ssi4 | Percent of Tokens Hodl'd\")\n",
    "ssi4text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 0.5,\n",
    "    description = 'ssi4 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "ssi4 = widgets.FloatSlider(\n",
    "    value=0.5,\n",
    "    min=0,\n",
    "    max=1,\n",
    "    step=0.001,\n",
    "    description='ssi4:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='.4f'\n",
    ") \n",
    "ssi4link = widgets.jslink((ssi4text, 'value'), (ssi4, 'value'))\n",
    "ssi5label = widgets.Label(value = \"ssi5 | Decrease in Percent of Tokens Hodl'd Each Year\")\n",
    "ssi5text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 0.01,\n",
    "    description = 'ssi5 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "ssi5 = widgets.FloatSlider(\n",
    "    value=0.01,\n",
    "    min=0,\n",
    "    max=1,\n",
    "    step=0.001,\n",
    "    description='ssi5:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='.4f'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "ssi5link = widgets.jslink((ssi5text, 'value'), (ssi5, 'value'))\n",
    "ei0label = widgets.Label(value = \"ei0 | Storage Cost per GB per Year\")\n",
    "ei0text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 3.85,\n",
    "    description = 'ei0 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "ei0 = widgets.FloatSlider(\n",
    "    value=3.85,\n",
    "    min=0,\n",
    "    max=10,\n",
    "    description='ei0:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='.2f'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "ei0link = widgets.jslink((ei0text, 'value'), (ei0, 'value'))\n",
    "ei1label = widgets.Label(value = \"ei1 | Cost Decline for Data Storage\")\n",
    "ei1text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 0.1430,\n",
    "    description = 'ei1 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "ei1 = widgets.FloatSlider(\n",
    "    value=0.1430,\n",
    "    min=0,\n",
    "    max=1,\n",
    "    step=0.001,\n",
    "    description='ei1:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='.4f'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "ei1link = widgets.jslink((ei1text, 'value'), (ei1, 'value'))\n",
    "ei2label = widgets.Label(value = \"ei2 | Datasphere Size (GB)\")\n",
    "ei2text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 93110734434921.6,\n",
    "    description = 'ei2 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "ei2 = widgets.IntSlider(\n",
    "    value=93110734434921.6,\n",
    "    min=0,\n",
    "    max=100000000000000000,\n",
    "    description='ei2:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='d'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "ei2link = widgets.jslink((ei2text, 'value'), (ei2, 'value'))\n",
    "ei3label = widgets.Label(value = \"ei3 | Datasphere CAGR\")\n",
    "ei3text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 0.262,\n",
    "    description = 'ei3 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "ei3 = widgets.FloatSlider(\n",
    "    value=0.262,\n",
    "    min=0,\n",
    "    max=1,\n",
    "    step=0.001,\n",
    "    description='ei3:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='.4f'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "ei3link = widgets.jslink((ei3text, 'value'), (ei3, 'value'))\n",
    "ei4label = widgets.Label(value = \"ei4 | % Total Addressable Market (TAM)\")\n",
    "ei4text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 0.10,\n",
    "    description = 'ei4 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "ei4 = widgets.FloatSlider(\n",
    "    value=0.10,\n",
    "    min=0,\n",
    "    max=1,\n",
    "    step=0.001,\n",
    "    description='ei4:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='.2f'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "ei4link = widgets.jslink((ei4text, 'value'), (ei4, 'value'))\n",
    "ei5label = widgets.Label(value = \"ei5 | Velocity\")\n",
    "ei5text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 20,\n",
    "    description = 'ei5 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "ei5 = widgets.IntSlider(\n",
    "    value=20,\n",
    "    min=0,\n",
    "    max=100,\n",
    "    step=1,\n",
    "    description='ei5:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='d'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "ei5link = widgets.jslink((ei5text, 'value'), (ei5, 'value'))\n",
    "aci0label = widgets.Label(value = \"aci0 | Launch Year\")\n",
    "aci0text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 2017,\n",
    "    description = 'aci0 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "aci0 = widgets.IntSlider(\n",
    "    value=2017,\n",
    "    min=2017,\n",
    "    max=2024,\n",
    "    step=1,\n",
    "    description='aci0:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='d'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "aci0link = widgets.jslink((aci0text, 'value'), (aci0, 'value'))\n",
    "aci1label = widgets.Label(value = \"aci1 | Saturation Percentage\")\n",
    "aci1text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 0.01,\n",
    "    description = 'aci1 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "aci1 = widgets.FloatSlider(\n",
    "    value=0.01,\n",
    "    min=0,\n",
    "    max=1,\n",
    "    step=0.001,\n",
    "    description='aci1:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='0.2f'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "aci1link = widgets.jslink((aci1text, 'value'), (aci1, 'value'))\n",
    "aci2label = widgets.Label(value = \"aci2 | Year of Inflection Point\")\n",
    "aci2text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 2024,\n",
    "    description = 'aci2 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "aci2 = widgets.IntSlider(\n",
    "    value=2024,\n",
    "    min=2000,\n",
    "    max=2100,\n",
    "    step=1,\n",
    "    description='aci2:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='d'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "aci2link = widgets.jslink((aci2text, 'value'), (aci2, 'value'))\n",
    "aci3label = widgets.Label(value = \"aci3 | Saturation Over Time\")\n",
    "aci3text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 10,\n",
    "    description = 'aci3 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "aci3 = widgets.IntSlider(\n",
    "    value=10,\n",
    "    min=0,\n",
    "    max=100,\n",
    "    step=1,\n",
    "    description='aci3:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='d'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "aci3link = widgets.jslink((aci3text, 'value'), (aci3, 'value'))\n",
    "dcmfu0label = widgets.Label(value = \"dcmfu0 | End Year\")\n",
    "dcmfu0text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 2032,\n",
    "    description = 'dcmfu0 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "dcmfu0 = widgets.IntSlider(\n",
    "    value=2032,\n",
    "    min=2020,\n",
    "    max=2100,\n",
    "    step=1,\n",
    "    description='dcmfu0:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='d'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "dcmfu0link = widgets.jslink((dcmfu0text, 'value'), (dcmfu0, 'value')) # calculated output\n",
    "dcmfu1label = widgets.Label(value = \"dcmfu1 | Years Between Target and End Year\")\n",
    "dcmfu1text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 10,\n",
    "    description = 'dcmfu1 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "dcmfu1 = widgets.IntSlider(\n",
    "    value=10,\n",
    "    min=0,\n",
    "    max=50,\n",
    "    step=1,\n",
    "    description='dcmfu1:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='d'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "dcmfu1link = widgets.jslink((dcmfu1text, 'value'), (dcmfu1, 'value'))\n",
    "dcmfu2label = widgets.Label(value = \"dcmfu2 | Discount Rate\")\n",
    "dcmfu2text = widgets.FloatText(\n",
    "    value = 0.40,\n",
    "    description = 'dcmfu2 = '\n",
    ")\n",
    "dcmfu2 = widgets.FloatSlider(\n",
    "    value=0.40,\n",
    "    min=0,\n",
    "    max=1,\n",
    "    step=0.001,\n",
    "    description='dcmfu2:',\n",
    "    disabled=False,\n",
    "    continuous_update=True,\n",
    "    orientation='horizontal',\n",
    "    readout=True,\n",
    "    readout_format='.2f'\n",
    ")    \n",
    "dcmfu2link = widgets.jslink((dcmfu2text, 'value'), (dcmfu2, 'value')) # calculated output\n",
    "resultlabel = widgets.Label(value='| Waiting for Result')\n",
    "\n",
    "### Calculations\n",
    "# Inputs\n",
    "def calculate():\n",
    "    ssi = [ssi0.value, ssi1.value, ssi2.value, ssi3.value, ssi4.value, ssi5.value]\n",
    "    ei = [ei0.value, ei1.value, ei2.value, ei3.value, ei4.value, ei5.value]\n",
    "    aci = [aci0.value, aci1.value, aci2.value, aci3.value]\n",
    "    dcmfu = [dcmfu0.value, dcmfu1.value, dcmfu2.value]\n",
    "    now = datetime.now() # current date and time\n",
    "    currentyear = int(now.strftime(\"%Y\")) # make slider for this\n",
    "    # Outputs\n",
    "    ssolen = 20 # length of output of array containing results\n",
    "    ssorows = 16 # unique output rows\n",
    "    euvo = [8] \n",
    "    acu = [3]\n",
    "\n",
    "    dcmfu[1] = dcmfu[0] - currentyear # the difference between end year and current year\n",
    "    yearsfromlaunch = (ssolen) * [0] #  an array containing 16 zeroed out elements\n",
    "    sso = [[0] * ssolen for i in range(ssorows)] # list of lists where each sublist contains 10 zeroed out elements\n",
    "    sso[0][0] = ssi[1] # number of tokens in float\n",
    "    sso[2][0] = ssi[4] # first element of array containing initial token hodl rate\n",
    "    sso[4][0] = ei[0]\n",
    "    sso[5][0] = ei[2]\n",
    "    sso[7][0] = 0\n",
    "\n",
    "    for i in range(len(sso[0])-1):\n",
    "        if sso[0][i] * (1 + ssi[2]) < ssi[0]:\n",
    "            sso[0][i+1] = sso[0][i] * (1 + ssi[2]) # number of tokens in float after each year\n",
    "        else:\n",
    "            sso[0][i+1] = ssi[0] # max number of tokens\n",
    "        sso[1][i+1] = sso[0][i+1] - sso[0][i]\n",
    "        sso[2][i+1] = sso[2][i] - ssi[5]\n",
    "        sso[4][i+1] = sso[4][i]/(1 + ei[1])\n",
    "        sso[5][i+1] = sso[5][i]*(1 + ei[3])\n",
    "\n",
    "    for i in range(len(yearsfromlaunch)):\n",
    "        yearsfromlaunch[i] = aci[0] + 4 + i # an array containing the years from launch - 2017 to 2034\n",
    "\n",
    "    for i in range(len(sso[0])):\n",
    "        sso[3][i] = sso[0][i] * (1 - sso[2][i])\n",
    "        sso[6][i] = sso[5][i] * ei[4]\n",
    "        sso[12][i] = aci[1]/(1 + 81**((aci[2]+aci[3]/2-yearsfromlaunch[i])/aci[3]))\n",
    "        sso[13][i] = sso[12][i] - sso[12][0]\n",
    "        sso[7][i] = sso[13][i]\n",
    "        sso[8][i] = sso[7][i] * sso[6][i]\n",
    "        sso[9][i] = sso[4][i] * sso[6][i] * (sso[7][i])\n",
    "        sso[10][i] = sso[9][i] / ei[5]\n",
    "        sso[11][i] = sso[10][i] / (sso[3][i])\n",
    "        sso[14][i] = aci[1]\n",
    "        sso[15][i] = sso[13][i]*100\n",
    "    result = round(sso[11][yearsfromlaunch.index(dcmfu[0])] / (1 + dcmfu[2])**dcmfu[1], 2) #lookup current utility value at end year and divide by (1 + discount rate) ^ years between launch year and end year\n",
    "    return [result, yearsfromlaunch, sso[11], sso[15]]\n",
    "\n",
    "### Plots\n",
    "\n",
    "plot1 = widgets.Output()\n",
    "plot2 = widgets.Output()\n",
    "\n",
    "### 'Plot' Button\n",
    "button = widgets.Button(description='Plot')\n",
    "buttonoutput = widgets.Output()\n",
    "\n",
    "# On Button Click    \n",
    "def on_button_clicked(b):\n",
    "    result = calculate()[0]\n",
    "    \n",
    "    with plot1:\n",
    "        clear_output()\n",
    "        a = np.array(calculate()[1])\n",
    "        b = np.array(calculate()[3])\n",
    "        plt.plot(a,b)\n",
    "        plt.title(\"Percent Penetration of Token by Year\")\n",
    "        plt.xlabel(\"Year\")\n",
    "        plt.ylabel(\"Penetration (%)\")\n",
    "        plt.show()\n",
    "\n",
    "    with plot2:\n",
    "        clear_output()\n",
    "        c = np.array(calculate()[1])\n",
    "        d = np.array(calculate()[2])\n",
    "        plt.plot(c,d)\n",
    "        plt.title(\"Current Utility Value of Token by Year\")\n",
    "        plt.xlabel(\"Year\")\n",
    "        plt.ylabel(\"Dollar Value per Token ($)\")\n",
    "        plt.show()  \n",
    "    \n",
    "    with buttonoutput:\n",
    "        clear_output()\n",
    "        resultlabel.value = '| Future Value: $' + str(result) # Market Value at End Year based on Expectations of Future Utility\n",
    "        button.description = 'Update'\n",
    "        display(plotvbox)\n",
    "        \n",
    "button.on_click(on_button_clicked)\n",
    "\n",
    "### Box and Tabs Layout\n",
    "\n",
    "# Supply Schedule Inputs\n",
    "tab1avbox = widgets.VBox([ssi0label, ssi0text, ssi1label, ssi1text, ssi2label, ssi2text, ssi3label, ssi3text, ssi4label, ssi4text, ssi5label, ssi5text])\n",
    "tab1bvbox = widgets.VBox([ssi0, ssi1, ssi2, ssi3, ssi4, ssi5])\n",
    "tab1hbox = widgets.HBox([tab1bvbox, tab1avbox])\n",
    "tab1 = VBox(children=[tab1hbox])\n",
    "\n",
    "# Economy Inputs\n",
    "tab2avbox = widgets.VBox([ei0label, ei0text, ei1label, ei1text, ei2label, ei2text, ei3label, ei3text, ei4label, ei4text, ei5label, ei5text])\n",
    "tab2bvbox = widgets.VBox([ei0, ei1, ei2, ei3, ei4, ei5])\n",
    "tab2hbox = widgets.HBox([tab2bvbox, tab2avbox])\n",
    "tab2 = VBox(children=[tab2hbox])\n",
    "\n",
    "# Adoption Curve Inputs\n",
    "tab3avbox = widgets.VBox([aci0label, aci0text, aci1label, aci1text, aci2label, aci2text, aci3label, aci3text])\n",
    "tab3bvbox = widgets.VBox([aci0, aci1, aci2, aci3])\n",
    "tab3hbox = widgets.HBox([tab3bvbox, tab3avbox])\n",
    "tab3 = VBox(children=[tab3hbox])\n",
    "\n",
    "# Current Market Value from Future Utility\n",
    "tab4avbox = widgets.VBox([dcmfu0label, dcmfu0text, dcmfu1label, dcmfu1text, dcmfu2label, dcmfu2text])\n",
    "tab4bvbox = widgets.VBox([dcmfu0, dcmfu1, dcmfu2])\n",
    "tab4hbox = widgets.HBox([tab4bvbox, tab4avbox])\n",
    "tab4 = VBox(children=[tab4hbox])\n",
    "\n",
    "# Button and Plot\n",
    "buttonhbox = widgets.HBox([button, resultlabel])\n",
    "plotvbox = widgets.VBox([plot1, plot2])\n",
    "tab = widgets.Tab(children=[tab1, tab2, tab3, tab4])\n",
    "tabhbox = widgets.HBox([tab, plotvbox])\n",
    "tab.set_title(0, 'Supply Schedule')\n",
    "tab.set_title(1, 'Economy')\n",
    "tab.set_title(2, 'Adoption Curve')\n",
    "tab.set_title(3, 'Current Market Value')\n",
    "VBox(children=[buttonhbox, tabhbox])"
   ]
  }
 ],
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